Buy or Sell Fiserv Stock After Its 44% Crash?

CANADA – 2025/07/21: In this photo illustration, the Fiserv logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The financial technology giant Fiserv stock (NASDAQ: FI) crashed 44% yesterday, October 29, 2025, sending shares to around the $70 level after the company announced shockingly bad third-quarter earnings and a significantly reduced full-year forecast.

The massive stock decline was driven by a confluence of negative financial and operational news. Fiserv’s results missed Wall Street expectations on two major fronts: adjusted earnings of $2.04 per share fell short of the $2.72 analyst consensus, and revenue of $5.26 billion missed the $5.56 billion forecast. Compounding this disappointment, the company drastically lowered its full-year earnings guidance to a range of $8.50-$8.60 per share from the previous outlook of $10.15-$10.30.

Operational and external challenges also fueled the crash. Fiserv reported a slowdown in organic revenue growth to just 1% for the quarter, including much slower growth in the crucial Merchant Solutions segment (which features the Clover platform). Management attributed this weakness partly to a slowdown in cyclical growth in Argentina and the impact of interest rates. Adding to the investor uncertainty were both a sudden senior leadership overhaul and ongoing legal concerns regarding alleged inflated growth tied to the Clover platform.

Given the dramatic drop, the key question is whether Fiserv stock is a buy at the current low valuation. While the price of around $70 looks attractive on the surface, the overall picture suggests a high-risk scenario. Considering yesterday’s severe developments, the new moderate revenue growth outlook, and the company’s weak financial stability, we believe the stock is risky and should be avoided for now.

We delve into the company’s financial and operational performance in the sections below. That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Our Stock Opinion – FI

Trefis

How Does Fiserv’s Valuation Look vs. The S&P 500?

Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, FI stock looks cheap compared to the broader market.

• Fiserv has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.8 vs. a figure of 3.2 for the S&P 500
• Additionally, the company’s price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 8.3 compared to 20.6 for S&P 500
• And, it has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.9 vs. the benchmark’s 23.6

How Have Fiserv’s Revenues Grown Over Recent Years?

Fiserv’s Revenues have grown marginally over recent years.

• Fiserv has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 7.5% over the last 3 years (vs. an increase of 5.3% for the S&P 500)
• Its revenues have grown 5.2% from $20 Bil to $21 Bil in the last 12 months (vs. growth of 5.4% for the S&P 500)
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 1.0% to $5.3 Bil in the most recent quarter from $5.2 Bil a year ago (vs. 6.4% improvement for S&P 500)

How Profitable Is Fiserv?

Fiserv’s profit margins are much higher than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.

• Fiserv’s Operating Income over the last four quarters was $6.2 Bil, which represents a considerably high Operating Margin of 29% (vs. 18.7% for the S&P 500)
• Fiserv’s Operating Cash Flow (OCF) over this period was $6.3 Bil, pointing to a considerably high OCF Margin of 30% (vs. 20.4% for the S&P 500)
• For the last four-quarter period, Fiserv’s Net Income was $3.6 Bil – indicating a moderate Net Income Margin of 17.0% (vs. 12.8% for the S&P 500)

Does Fiserv Look Financially Stable?

Fiserv’s balance sheet looks weak.

• Fiserv’s Debt figure was $30 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $39 Bil (as of 10/29/2025). This implies a high Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 76.5% (vs. 21.2% for S&P 500). [Note: A low Debt-to-Equity Ratio is desirable]
• Cash (including cash equivalents and investments) makes up $2 Bil of the $77 Bil in Total Assets for Fiserv. This yields a very poor Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 2.8% (vs. 6.9% for S&P 500)

How Resilient Is FI Stock During A Downturn?

FI stock has been more resilient compared to the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. Worried about the impact of a market crash on FI stock? Our dashboard – How Low Can Fiserv Stock Really Go? – has a detailed analysis of how the stock performed during and after previous market crashes.

Inflation Shock (2022)

• FI stock fell 30.2% from a high of $126.55 on 26 April 2021 to $88.38 on 16 June 2022, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 July 2023
• Since then, the stock has increased to a high of $237.79 on 3 March 2025 and currently trades at around $71

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)

• FI stock fell 37.8% from a high of $123.89 on 4 February 2020 to $77.00 on 23 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 March 2021

Global Financial Crisis (2008)

• FI stock fell 51.1% from a high of $14.81 on 31 May 2007 to $7.24 on 27 October 2008, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 December 2010

Putting All The Pieces Together: What It Means For FI Stock

In summary, Fiserv’s performance across the parameters detailed above is as follows:

• Growth: Moderate
• Profitability: Very Strong
• Financial Stability: Weak
• Downturn Resilience: Strong
• Overall: Moderate

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The Bottom Line

Considering Fiserv’s moderate overall performance across the relevant parameters, despite its current low valuation, we conclude that the stock remains risky.

Now, of course, we could be wrong in our assessment, and investors may view the dramatically reduced price as a buying opportunity. However, our analysis suggests caution. We believe the stock is too risky to recommend at this time. Investors would be better served either waiting for proof of improved performance—specifically, an organic growth rate significantly higher than the meager 1% seen in the latest quarter—or by seeking better opportunities in other fintech stocks, such as SoFi (NASDAQ: SOFI), which has shown stronger recent performance.