Wall Street pros to see their biggest bonus bump since 2021 — and just about every banker will enjoy the spoils

Wall Street’s optimism going into 2025 looks like it was right on the money. Most everyone’s year-end bonuses, which will be doled out early next year, are going up.

That’s according to projections published Wednesday from compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates. The findings show strong revenue growth, improved business performance, and a third consecutive year of a rising stock market, which should lift total pay across almost all finance jobs for a second year in a row.

“2025 will be a very good pay year. It’s a little unusual that it appears that way across almost all of Wall Street and most of the financial services sector,” Johnson Associates managing director Alan Johnson said.

Pros tied to stock trading desks are poised to see their average bonuses jump the most — as much as 25%, according to Johnson Associates.

Other workers in sales and trading groups that specialize in fixed income and currency trades are also expected to see formidable bonus increases. Along with bankers who’ve underwritten this year’s wave of corporate bond offerings, those traders should see payouts up an average 10% from last year.

Earlier this year, President Trump’s tariff frenzy threatened to put a damper on many of Wall Street’s fee-generating businesses. That uncertainty chilled Wall Street at the time, prompting Johnson Associates to forecast lower 2025 bonuses for nearly all in the world of finance.

But with a resounding rebound in corporate megadeals — and companies going public this summer — other investment bankers, particularly those who advise on mergers and acquisitions, have seen a wild reversal of their fortunes.

M&A bankers are now set for a 12.5% increase in their average annual bonuses versus the 6.2% drop expected in May. Like their M&A adviser counterparts, IPO bankers saw activity rebound through the summer, but now they are facing a current government shutdown that could weigh on fourth quarter activity. They are expected to see a lower average increase of 6.5%, according to the report.

Wealth managers are also on pace for an average 9% rise, thanks so far to the stock market’s 2025 boom following the temporary tariff drama.

Those working at private credit firms and hedge funds are expected to see average bonus increases of 6% and 8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, average bonus estimates for private equity professionals, along with retail and commercial bankers, could remain flat or rise as much as 5%.

Based on the latest projections, Johnson Associates anticipates bonus increases for 2025 will be the second-best out of the past five years, trailing only the record-setting year of 2021.

Now two years in the making, the rebound in Wall Street bonuses comes after payouts fell sharply in 2022, then remained flat or declined further in 2023 as the financial services sector grappled with a global dealmaking slump.

The report also offers some hindsight. Much of Wall Street’s optimism from a year ago was on the mark, at least in terms of their own compensation.

The analysis comes after a recent report from the Office of the New York State Comptroller that found Wall Street’s total bonus pool is on pace to soar past last year’s record haul of $47.5 billion, based on reported profit and compensation expenses from New York Stock Exchange member firms over the first half of 2025.

The same analysis found that last year, the average annual salary in New York City’s securities industry was $505,630, while the average annual bonus was $244,700.

“The securities industry’s gains provide an important boost for tax revenues that support critical investments in housing, transportation, and public services that New Yorkers depend on,” New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said in a related statement.

“While uncertainty remains around interest rates, inflation and the broader economy, Wall Street looks to have another strong year,” DiNapoli added.

Going forward, the outlook for Wall Street’s workforce may not be as rosy, according to Johnson.

With major financial institutions rushing to capitalize on the AI frenzy, Johnson’s firm expects headcount to decline 10% to 20% over the next three to five years across Wall Street.

“I don’t think anybody wants to really brag about it but [AI] is going to have a very large impact, relatively soon,” Johnson said.

David Hollerith covers the financial sector, ranging from the country’s biggest banks to regional lenders, private equity firms, and the cryptocurrency space.

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