Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: Record Shutdown Meets Election Day

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Government shutdown becomes longest ever; odds say the end is near. (00:24) Google (GOOG) wins DOJ approval for $32B Wiz acquisition. (01:56) Bear market? Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hovers near $100,000, ether (ETH-USD) erases YTD gains. (02:34)

This is an abridged transcript.

This is now the longest U.S. government shutdown on record; however, odds are suggesting that the end could be near.

As we enter day 36 of the shutdown, odds of it prolonging have come down. Betting on the prediction market, Polymarket now has the shutdown ending on November 13, earlier than the previous prediction of November 29.

As the shutdown was inching towards becoming the longest one, talks accelerated to resolve issues and let the closure come to an end.

A key reason for the shutdown is that Democrats are opposed to the Republicans’ plan not to extend Affordable Care Act tax credits for 2026. If that were to happen, many individuals who obtain their health coverage through state insurance exchanges are likely to face drastically higher premiums without the subsidies.

The drop in the odds on the prediction markets coincided with a high-stakes day on Tuesday that saw the first major elections of Trump’s second term.

Millions of voters headed to the polls to decide key gubernatorial, statewide, and local races. Many analysts and experts see the elections as a test for Trump and believe they could set the tone for the 2026 midterms.

And one of the big stories you’ll see today is about the race for mayor in New York City. Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani beat Andrew Cuomo who ran as an independent. We’re breaking down what this means for Wall Street in the Wall Street Breakfast newsletter. There’s a link to sign up for the newsletter in the show notes section.

The Justice Department gives an all-clear to Wiz and Alphabet (GOOG) for the latter to acquire the former.

The Israel-based cloud security company will be acquired by Alphabet in a deal valued at about $32 billion. It will be Alphabet’s largest acquisition.

“Definitely, this is an important milestone, but we’re still in the journey between signing and closing,” Wiz CEO Assaf Rappaport said when asked about the DOJ review of the deal.

Bloomberg News reported earlier this year that the DOJ antitrust enforcers were reviewing whether Alphabet’s planned acquisition of the cybersecurity firm would illegally limit competition in the marketplace.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has tumbled about 20% from a record high that it hit a month ago, pushing the cryptocurrency into bear market territory.

BTC briefly fell below $100,000 on Monday for the first time since June. It has since pared losses, and as of the time of this recording it is up 0.2% and below $102,000.

Ether (ETH-USD) has declined below $3,500, and has effectively wiped out all its year-to-date gains (-0.3% YTD). As of the time of this recording, the crypto was at $3,297.

October saw a wave of crypto liquidations, the biggest of which occurred when President Trump threatened more tariffs on China, as well as significant ETF outflows.

The tariff threat triggered a whopping $19.16B in liquidations on Oct. 11, according to CoinGlass data. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $1.76B.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 23, signaling “extreme fear” in the market.

What’s Trending on Seeking Alpha:

China to suspend most U.S. tariffs after Trump-Xi meeting, soybeans still face 13% duty

Novo Nordisk cuts 2025 forecast again, cites slower sales of Wegovy and Ozempic

Uber outlines high teens gross bookings growth and accelerates AV strategy with NVIDIA partnership

Catalyst watch:

• Bank of America (BAC) will hold its Investor Day in Boston. This event stands out because it marks Bank of America’s first Investor Day in roughly 15 years and just the second since the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

• LendingClub (LC) will hold its Investor Day event in New York City.

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures are in mixed territory. Crude oil is up 0.8% at $61/barrel. Gold is up 0.8% at $3,964.

The FTSE 100 is flat and the DAX is down 0.7%.

The biggest movers for the day premarket: Digital Turbine (APPS) +25% – Shares jumped after the company beat expectations on both profit and revenue and raised its full-year outlook.

On today’s economic calendar:

• 7:00 am MBA Mortgage Applications

• 8:15 am ADP Employment Report

• 10:30 am EIA Petroleum Status Report