Natural Gas News: Will Today’s EIA Inventory Report Trigger a Bullish Breakout?
Can a Smaller EIA Build Overcome Strong Supply Pressure?
The market consensus points to a storage build of +32–33 Bcf for the week ended October 31, under the five-year average of +43 Bcf. NatGasWeather projects a tighter +29 Bcf injection, attributing the leaner build to colder-than-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. and reduced wind and solar output. A result on the lower end of expectations could provide a bullish spark, especially as last week’s build came in at +74 Bcf—above the seasonal average of +67 Bcf.
However, strong supply trends continue to dominate. U.S. dry gas production rose to 109.7 Bcf/day on Wednesday, up 9.3% y/y, just below Tuesday’s record-setting 110 Bcf/day. The ramp-up adds significant downside weight, even as LNG export flows remain steady at 16.8 Bcf/day. The EIA also recently revised its 2025 production forecast upward to 107.14 Bcf/day, reinforcing the broader supply surplus narrative.
Weather Models Offer Little Bullish Support After Weekend Cold Shot
While demand is expected to tick higher between Sunday and Tuesday due to a colder system across the northern U.S., broader trends remain neutral to bearish. Forecasts for November 10–14 have cooled slightly in the East but have shifted warmer in the central and western U.S. Further out, November 15–19 projections lean warmer in the South, which could suppress residential heating demand just as production hits seasonal highs.