ConocoPhillips (COP): Valuation Insights as Shares Lag Energy Sector
ConocoPhillips (COP) shares have edged lower by roughly 1% over the past week. Investors are keeping an eye on the stock’s performance, particularly with ongoing shifts in energy markets and recent pressure on oil prices.
See our latest analysis for ConocoPhillips.
After a tough few months for energy stocks, ConocoPhillips has seen its share price slip about 13% year-to-date, with the latest move reflecting continued softness in oil prices and a wider market rotation out of energy. Over the past year, the stock’s total shareholder return landed at minus 14.8%, momentum that has certainly faded from its previous multi-year run. Long-term holders remain well ahead thanks to a 164% total return over five years.
If you’re interested in uncovering what else is making waves beyond the energy sector, it could be the perfect time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership
With shares lagging and a significant gap to analyst targets, investors face the question: is ConocoPhillips undervalued at these levels, or is the market already factoring in any potential rebound in growth?
ConocoPhillips’ widely followed fair value estimate of $113.54 sits well above the last close of $87.37, reflecting optimism about future returns and sector leadership. Behind this gap is a valuation grounded in ambitious expansion plans, margin improvement, and the belief that strategic moves will unlock significant free cash flow.
The company’s expanding LNG portfolio and progress on large-scale liquefaction projects (notably in Qatar, Port Arthur, and Willow) are set to capture significant market share from robust global gas demand, especially as natural gas solidifies its role as a “transition fuel.” These projects are expected to drive a substantial free cash flow inflection and topline revenue expansion through 2029.
Want to discover what bold financial bets fuel this high fair value? The secret: sweeping production changes and sharp margin moves that could reset how Wall Street values ConocoPhillips. Just what are analysts assuming about future earnings? Are their numbers realistic? Click for the full narrative and see the projections the market is buzzing about.
Result: Fair Value of $113.54 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, risks remain, including execution challenges on new projects and weaker commodity prices. Either of these factors could limit ConocoPhillips’ projected upside.
Find out about the key risks to this ConocoPhillips narrative.
Looking through the lens of earnings multiples, ConocoPhillips trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2, which is about in line with its peer group and modestly below the broader U.S. oil and gas industry average of 13.1. Compared to its estimated fair ratio of 19.3, there is a sizable gap. This suggests the market is cautious or possibly overlooking something. If investors re-rated the stock closer to its fair ratio, it could mean considerable upside. However, it also highlights valuation risk if assumptions change. Is this a value opportunity waiting to be realized, or is the current discount a warning signal?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
If you have a different take or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own ConocoPhillips story in just a few minutes, and Do it your way
A great starting point for your ConocoPhillips research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
Smart investors always keep their radar on for the next opportunity. Unlock potential market winners now with these screens, which are packed with under-the-radar prospects that shouldn’t be missed.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include COP.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com