Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: US Futures Dip Ahead of Iran Talks
Weaker ADP employment figures and a lower-than-expected NY Empire State Manufacturing Index reading would bolster bets on a June Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed rate path would lift sentiment.
Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches following the US jobs and CPI reports. Views on monetary policy will influence risk appetite.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a March Fed rate cut fell from 17.2% on February 9 to 9.8% on February 13. Meanwhile, the probability of a June cut declined from 72.8% to 69.4%. Market sentiment toward the Fed’s policy outlook remains a key driver for US stock futures.
However, market reaction to the data and Fed rhetoric will likely hinge on updates on US-Iran talks. An increased threat of a US military strike on Iran is likely to overshadow sentiment toward the Fed’s policy stance.
Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500
Following Tuesday morning’s losses, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini remained below their 50-day EMAs, while holding above their 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions signaled a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini held above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias that aligns with positive fundamentals.
Near-term trends will hinge on US economic data, central bank chatter, and geopolitical tensions. Key levels to monitor include:
Dow Jones
- Resistance: 50,000, the February 10 record high of 50,611, and then 51,000.
- Support: the 50-day EMA (48,998), and then 48,500.