Feeling broke in a steady economy? Here's what's happening.

Inflation ticked down to 2.4%, the unemployment rate fell, and U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose reports economists view as the “gold standard” of data.

On paper, the economy appears to be stabilizing.

But many Americans say they’re struggling to afford groceries, and even high-income earners feel they’re in “survival mode.” Workers are clinging to their jobs, fearing they can’t afford to lose them. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since 2014 in January.

Chief economist for Comerica Bank Bill Adams said the disconnect between what people say about the economy and what the hard numbers show widened following the COVID-19 pandemic, then narrowed a bit, and is still not “back to normal.”

“This kind of post-pandemic puzzle has been with us for a while and looks like it’s not resolving overnight,” Adams said. “It tends to be a slow painful process for economies to get back to normal after these really large shocks.”

Economists point to a mix of factors. Prices remain significantly higher than they were before the pandemic, wage gains have not fully offset cumulative cost increases for many households, and the labor market is no longer booming – elements Americans have noticed.

How much will groceries cost this week? Use this Grocery Price Tracker

Can the government’s economic numbers be trusted?

Some critics have questioned whether the government’s numbers can be trusted after President Donald Trump’s decision to fire the BLS’ commissioner raised concerns about the agency’s independence and credibility last year.

Months later, however, there is no public evidence that data has been manipulated, and Mark Hamrick, Bankrate senior economic analyst, said any tampering would likely be detected by private forecasters and civilian employees.

Nationwide economic indicators are estimates based on sample surveys, not a full census of every household and employer. The BLS revises its figures when more complete data becomes available. While monthly estimates can be off and lower survey response rates may affect reports, economists say the broader trend lines are generally reliable, particularly when viewed in the context of other data.

“I understand, and certainly have been questioned, if not criticized, for leaning in on the macroeconomic data over the years when individuals don’t feel like it aligns perfectly with their view,” Hamrick said. “But it’s also a fact that the macro data is macro. It can be sunny in my neighborhood. It might be raining in someone else’s. The reality of those two experiences are not in conflict.”

Post-pandemic sticker shock never went away

Inflation is running at 2.4%, near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and price growth has slowed from last year. But slower inflation does not mean lower prices. It means prices are rising at a slower pace than they were before.

In June 2022, inflation peaked at 9.1%, the highest level in four decades. It remained elevated in 2021, 2022 and the beginning of 2023.

Since the start of 2021, consumer prices have risen 22.7%, while wages have grown 21.5%, a Bankrate analysis found in late 2025. Not everyone has received a raise. Wage growth for lower-paid workers has slowed more than for high-earners, according to data from the Atlanta Fed.

“Nobody’s talking about ever going back to the prices that we had kind of been more accustomed to prior to that inflationary surge,” Dr. Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow in economics at the Pacific Research Institute, said. “We’ve lost that ground, and we need our incomes to accelerate to kind of catch back up.”

With housing costs many Americans’ largest regular expense, it’s a pain point not fully reflected in the BLS’ Consumer Price Index. While the index tracks rent costs, it does not directly capture mortgage payments or the difficulty many Americans have attempting to save for a down payment.

“Housing is one of the ways that families, especially lower-to-middle-income households save and create wealth,” Oxford Economics Lead Economist Bernard Yaros said, adding that when housing is unaffordable, “it just weighs on people, and it makes people upset, and I think that’s something that’s difficult to capture.”

There is also a psychological factor. While some prices, including those for eggs and gasoline have come down, Adams said consumers tend to focus on what costs go up.

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Job gains uneven across industries

While monthly jobs figures sometimes beat expectations, as they did in January, they are still estimates and revisions are routine.

The BLS’ revision released alongside the January jobs report, showed the agency revised its estimate of job growth in 2025 down from 584,000 to 181,000, marking a meaningful slowdown last year.

Economists describe the labor market as a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Several factors contribute to employers’ caution, including ongoing tariff uncertainty and the adoption of artificial intelligence reshaping hiring plans.

Americans’ experience of the job market varies depending on who they are and what they do. Much of the recent job growth has been concentrated in health care and social assistance. Workers outside those industries may face a more difficult search.

“It would be inappropriate for someone to look at what is a historically low unemployment rate of most recently, 4.3%, and to say that that is perfectly parallel to the lived experiences of each and every worker in the United States,” Hamrick said. “This is a number which is measuring the entire United States workforce, which is many millions of people.”

Winegarden added he understands individuals know their own economic situation, and it can sometimes vary from trend lines in the nationwide figures.

“Your individual economy is valid, and if you’re having a hard time getting a job, then the job market is tough,” Winegarden said.

Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The economy looks better on paper. Here’s why it doesn’t feel that way