Fed's Waller says he could shift to holding rates steady if next jobs report comes in strong

Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said Monday that if the next jobs report comes in strong, his view could shift to holding interest rates steady at the next policy meeting after favoring cutting rates due to labor market weakness for the past six months.

“If the labor market data for February are consistent with the stronger job creation and low unemployment rate initially reported in January, indicating that downside risks to the labor market have diminished, it may be appropriate to hold the FOMC’s policy rate at current levels and watch for continued progress on inflation and strength in the labor market,” Waller said in a speech in Washington at the National Association for Business Economics conference.

But he cautioned that if the strong reading on the job market for January is revised lower — the Labor Department reported a gain of 130,000 jobs, more than in the previous nine months combined — that would reinforce January’s rate cut and mean another cut was called for in March.

Waller rated the two possible outcomes as close to a “coin flip.”

For much of the past year, Waller has pointed to anemic payroll growth for much of 2025 as a reason for the Fed to lower its benchmark policy rate to support the job market.

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

He cautioned that one month of good news doesn’t make a trend and that the January jobs report may be more noise than a clear sign that the job market is gaining strength. He pointed out that nearly all jobs created last month came from healthcare and social assistance and pointed to private-sector data showing job creation was weaker than the government report.

Waller was the first member of the Fed to call for a rate cut last June. The Fed finally cut rates three times last fall to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed voted to hold rates steady last month, though Waller dissented because he preferred to cut rates amid continued concerns at the time about the strength of the job market.

On inflation, Waller has been of the view that tariffs will have a one-time impact on prices and the Fed can discount their impact when assessing inflation.

He said the Supreme Court’s ruling Friday overturning a large share of tariffs imposed last year by President Trump may have a positive impact on spending and investment, but how large that impact may be and how long it could last is unclear. The administration plans to reimpose tariffs using other laws, but there is considerable uncertainty.

Waller said it’s still “too soon to know” the impact on prices, but that if the changes in the tariff regime relieve price pressures, he will look through that too because he believes the impact is temporary.