5 numbers that will define Tesla's robotaxi push

It’s become clear over the past few quarters that Tesla is an AI company now.

As the company’s car sales have plummeted worldwide, costing it the crown of world’s largest EV seller, investor focus has shifted to robotaxis. Self-driving EVs are now seen by Wall Street analysts as carrying Tesla — and its stock price — to new heights.

In Elon (And Robotaxis) We Trust.

Up until the start of 2026, investors were sold on the new vision. The stock more than doubled between April and December of last year.

But Tesla had a rocky start to 2026, falling 13% year-to-date through Tuesday. It’s had to contend with mounting skepticism around AI, and a sharp rotation out of market-leading tech names.

Enter new research from Bank of America on Wednesday, which helped push Tesla shares up more than 3%, their biggest gain in a month. The firm — which resumed coverage on Tesla stock and slapped it with a buy rating — did its best to quantify the bullish impact of robotaxis.

Combining BofA’s estimates with other major forecasts from Wall Street analysts, here are the five numbers that will define Tesla’s robotaxi business going forward:

$460

This is BofA’s new 12-month forward price target on Tesla stock, which implies 13% upside. The firm is more bullish than the average Wall Street forecast of $421.60, although that’s also above current levels. BofA’s forecast is primarily driven by robotaxi optimism, as evidenced by the next number:

52%

This is how much of Tesla’s overall valuation BofA is assigning to robotaxis. More than half! And more than double the 21% contribution from its core car business. My how times change … and quickly. Here’s the full breakdown:

50%

This is how much of the global robotaxi market bullish pundits think Tesla can grab in the coming decade. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest sees it earning that share by 2030. Wolfe Research also thinks 50% is attainable, but not until 2035.

1 million

Speaking of 2035, this is the number of robotaxis Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco sees Tesla hitting by then. That would be a precipitous increase from the 1,000 the firm expects on roads by the end of 2026, although Percoco does have a neutral rating on the stock.

$20 billion

This is what Tesla has said it expects to spend on capex in 2026, more than double the $9 billion spent the year before. It’s a bold move, considering how investors have started punishing companies for big AI spending.

For its part, RBC Capital Markets — which has a buy rating on the stock, and a $500 price target that’s even more bullish than BofA’s — says it’s the right amount to facilitate necessary innovation.