CPI Report Live: What Today's Inflation Report Means For the Fed
March 11, 2026 10:16 AM EDT
What Today’s Report Means For the Fed
FROM 47 minutes ago
The relatively tame inflation report is unlikely to convince Federal Reserve officials to lower interest rates in the coming months, economists said.
Fed officials are instead likely to keep the central bank’s key interest rate higher for longer as they wait to see how the war affects prices. The fed funds rate affects borrowing costs across all kinds of loans, and Fed officials have kept it elevated since 2022 to discourage borrowing and spending and quell inflation. The Fed cut rates late last year to help boost the faltering job market, but has remained in “wait-and-see” mode since its last meeting in January.
The uncertainty of the Iran war is likely to discourage the Fed from making any moves anytime soon, economists said.
March 11, 2026 09:26 AM EDT
Here’s What Economists Think About Today’s CPI Report
FROM 1 hr 37 min ago
These comments have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com
“While the numbers reinforce a ‘drifting lower’ pattern, the real story is what’s not in February’s report.
Because this data window closed just as the new 15% global tariff threats were announced and, more crucially, before the Iran War and resulting oil and trade shock, we should think of this as an inflation floor for the coming months, not a sign of what’s to come. Today’s report establishes the cleanest baseline we are likely to see before new price pressures form and grow this spring.”
Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics
“This pre-war inflation reading isn’t entirely stale, as it shows that key pillars of disinflation are in place. …Rents softened, and core goods excluding used vehicles slowed after their jump in January. The latter development should allay fears about further meaningful tariff passthrough, which we think has largely played out.”
Richard de Chazal, macro analyst with William Blair
“We view this latest supply shock as further evidence that the inflation regime has changed.
We moved from an essentially frictionless supply-side world for the decade or two before the pandemic, to what is now a world that is being consistently hit by one supply shock after another (pandemic, Russia-Ukraine, tariffs, increasingly erratic weather, and now war with Iran).
Importantly, we have also moved from a world where the supply of energy was relatively cheap and plentiful following the advent of fracking and the emergence of the U.S. as a net energy exporter, to one where demand for energy, on the back of the AI boom, is far outstripping the available supply.
The result has been consumers’ inflationary expectations remain unanchored and jittery.”
Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist with BMO Capital Markets Economic Research
“The U.S. CPI report largely met our forecast for February. But that doesn’t mean inflation is under control.
There were a number of important components, from gasoline, airfares, services, housing, medical care, and food and beverage prices, that already saw hefty gains last month, even before the conflict in the Gulf heated up.
Investors will swiftly dismiss the message from the headline inflation rate, given the escalating conflict in the Gulf and worsening inflation picture ahead.”
Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide
“Even if the conflict is rather short in duration, two to six weeks in total, the shutting down of oil and natural production in the Middle East cannot all be turned back on immediately—there will be some lag time in resuming production across the region.
Gasoline prices in the U.S. look poised to rise to around $3.75 per gallon nationally in the coming weeks, and it could take much of the year to trend back to the pre-conflict level of below $3 per gallon. Additionally, diesel fuel prices have spiked, which will feed through into higher transportation costs that lift price pressures across the supply chain.”
March 11, 2026 09:13 AM EDT
Stock Futured Edged Lower in Wake of Inflation Report
FROM 1 hr 50 min ago
Stock futures moved modestly Wednesday morning, edging lower after a fresh inflation reading came in as expected.
Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 were down 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, respectively, after the release of the February CPI report. Futures were about flat before the release.
Before the reading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of consumer loans, edged higher to 4.17% from Tuesday’s close above 4.16%. The 10-year yield ticked higher to 4.19% after the CPI report’s release.
Read our live coverage of the stock market’s movements today here.
March 11, 2026 09:03 AM EDT
Here’s Where Inflation Rose the Most in February
FROM 2 hours ago
Over the month, consumers saw the highest inflation in moving costs, sporting event tickets and jewelry, among others.
Also notable was fuel oil, which is oils such as propane and kerosene used for home heating and cooking.
Investopedia
March 11, 2026 08:55 AM EDT
Here’s Where Inflation Fell the Most in February
FROM 2 hr 8 min ago
Over the month, inflation in electronics and meats fell the most, according to Wednesday’s data on CPI.
See the graphic below for the top detailed categories in which inflation fell.
Investopedia
March 11, 2026 08:41 AM EDT
Gas Prices Fell Before the War in Iran
FROM 2 hr 22 min ago
This data does not capture any price increases that have occurred since the U.S. began a bombing campaign in Iran.
A flat inflation rate, though stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% annual target, is a sign that inflation wasn’t a major threat to the economy before the Iran war. The war has changed the outlook, however, by pushing up energy prices and raising inflation risks.
According to the data, all types of gasoline fell 5.6% in the 12 months ending in February, but rose slightly by 0.8% over the month. Both numbers are likely to increase in March, as AAA has recorded 10 straight days of rising gas prices.
The average regular gallon of gas is $3.58 nationwide, up from $2.94 a month ago and $3.08 a year ago, AAA found.
To read more about rising gas prices, click here.
To find out how gas prices in your state compare, click here.
March 11, 2026 08:30 AM EDT
Inflation Remained Tame in February
FROM 2 hr 32 min ago
The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% over 12 months in February, the same annual rate as in January and in line with economists’ expectations.
Core prices, which exclude the volatile prices for food and energy, rose 2.5%, also the same as in January.
Read more about the details of the report here.