Stock Market Today (LIVE): Surging Oil Prices Send Airline Stocks Tumbling; Nvidia Joins AI Model Wars

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Netflix Hopes Sequel Is Gonna Be, Gonna Be Golden

4:00 pm — NFLX -0.3%

Netflix (NFLX 0.73%) announced a sequel to KPop Demon Hunters , bringing back directors Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans for the follow-up to what became the most popular Netflix film of all time with more than 500 million views since its June 2025 debut. The animated film, produced in partnership with Sony Pictures Animation, spawned a global phenomenon that extended far beyond the screen: Fictional K-pop group HUNTR/X became the first K-pop girl group to reach No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100, while their song “Golden” won a Grammy Award and was the year’s seventh-most streamed song in the world on Spotify (SPOT 1.05%) .

The sequel will be the first project from Netflix’s new exclusive multiyear writing and directing partnership with Kang and Appelhans across animation, with Kang saying, ”there’s so much more to this world we have built, and I’m excited to show you. This is only the beginning.” Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria said Kang and Appelhans “didn’t just reach audiences, they ignited a global fandom that crossed languages, generations, and genres,” while Kang expressed “immense pride as a Korean filmmaker that the audience wants more from this Korean story and our Korean characters.”

Closing Bell

4:10 pm

Global stock markets fell again Thursday after Iran called for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, sending Brent crude surging more than 8% to top $100 a barrel and deepening stagflation fears. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% for its third straight loss and is now at a low for the year, down 2.5%.

• Not flying high: Airlines bore the brunt of the selloff, as rising fuel costs threatened profit margins: Southwest Airlines (LUV 7.34%) fell 6%, American Airlines (AAL 4.44%) dropped 4%, and United Airlines (UAL 4.63%) declined 4%, though Delta Air Lines (DAL 2.15%) proved more resilient with a 2% loss thanks to its ownership of an oil refinery that provides a partial hedge against fuel costs.
• Rate cuts rate cut: The oil shock has upended Federal Reserve policy expectations, with traders who had priced in multiple rate cuts this year now bracing for the Fed to stand pat until at least September or potentially deliver no cuts at all in 2026.

A Change at the Top For TIC Solutions

3:20 pm — TIC -11.8%

TIC Solutions (TIC 9.35%) fell 13% today after the testing, inspection, certification, and compliance company’s fourth-quarter earnings release. Meaningful comparisons to previous quarters are difficult because of the transformative merger last fall between Acuren (TIC’s legacy operations) and engineering firm NV5 Global. Fourth-quarter revenue of $508 million was roughly flat from last year’s level, as healthy demand from data center and infrastructure customers was offset by federal funding freezes and soft demand from Gulf Coast clients.

• A New Sheriff in Town: The big news is that Tal Pizzey is stepping down after nearly four decades as TIC’s CEO. Fortunately, TIC has a capable replacement ready in COO Ben Heraud, who ran NV5 Global prior to the merger.
• Looking Ahead: Because its services are required by regulations, TIC generates steady revenue and free cash flow regardless of macroeconomic conditions, and the company has a long growth runway ahead thanks to secular tailwinds like infrastructure investment, renewable energy, grid modernization, and digital transformation.

Microsoft Launches AI Health Chatbot

3:10 pm — MSFT -0.1%

Microsoft (MSFT 0.73%) announced that it is adding Copilot Health, a dedicated health assistant portal and chat tool within its consumer Copilot chatbot, letting U.S. users upload medical history and wearable device data as the company aims to replicate the experience of concierge medicine for the masses. Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft’s consumer AI chief, said he imagines “very soon there is going to be a medical superintelligence available to everybody at their fingertips, 24 hours a day.”

Microsoft joins Amazon (AMZN 1.52%) , OpenAI, and Anthropic in the rapidly crowding AI health field. The company claims it will keep health data separate from other Copilot conversations and won’t use patient information to train AI models. Microsoft built an internal clinical team and consulted with outside physicians on the chatbot’s recommendations and safety

• Better get a second opinion: Copilot Health is not intended to provide diagnoses or treatment plans; a demonstration this week showed the system advising a dummy patient complaining of jaw pain after a heart attack to “get evaluated in person today” rather than offering medical guidance.
• Competitive landscape: Amazon rolled out a health chatbot on its website and mobile app this week, expanding beyond its One Medical primary care franchise, while OpenAI and Anthropic have also launched their own health specialist chatbots as people increasingly pepper AI tools with medical questions.

Nvidia Challenges Its Own Customers

2:05 pm — NVDA -1.2%

Nvidia (NVDA 1.53%) plans to invest $26 billion in building open-weight AI models, according to SEC filings reported by Wired, putting the chip giant in direct competition with its biggest customers including OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek. The investment — more than Meta (META 2.52%) spent on Reality Labs last year and roughly equivalent to Anthropic’s current valuation — represents the most dramatic strategic pivot since Nvidia went all-in on AI chips four years ago.

The open-weight approach, where model weights are publicly released but not necessarily under open-source licenses, positions Nvidia as a middle ground between OpenAI’s closed models and Meta’s fully open-source Llama series, while leveraging the company’s control over compute infrastructure and two years of quiet AI research talent acquisition. CEO Jensen Huang has emphasized Nvidia is “a full-stack AI company,” but the move forces hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT 0.73%) , Amazon (AMZN 1.52%) , and Alphabet ’s (GOOG 1.69%) (GOOGL 1.66%) Google — Nvidia’s three largest cloud customers, which are all invested in competing model providers — to reconsider relationships with a supplier now gunning for their business.

• Massive scale advantage: The $26 billion budget dwarfs typical model development costs. OpenAI reportedly spent around $3 billion training GPT-4, meaning Nvidia could feasibly develop multiple frontier models while optimizing them specifically for its own hardware, creating a powerful vertical integration moat similar to Apple’s hardware-software ecosystem.
• Accelerated chip competition risk: The move could backfire by pushing Microsoft, Amazon, and Google to accelerate development of their own AI chips to reduce dependence on Nvidia hardware, with one AI executive telling Wired, “you can’t be both the Switzerland of AI infrastructure and a direct competitor.”
• Long timeline: Filings indicate spending will ramp up over 18 to 24 months, with the first releases potentially arriving late 2026 or early 2027 — an eternity in AI — though financial analysts estimate capturing just 10% of the foundation model market could add $50 billion annually to Nvidia’s revenue within three years.

Lunchtime News: $100 Oil Returns, Stocks Fall Again

2:10 pm

U.S. stocks fell sharply Thursday as oil prices rose above $100 a barrel again amid the escalating war on Iran, adding fresh uncertainty to an already jittery market. By early afternoon, the Dow dropped more than 1.4% points, the Nasdaq fell 1.4%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.2%.

• Energy shock: Iraq closed its oil port terminals after strikes on two tankers off its coast, while Iran warned crude could hit $200 a barrel and called for the Strait of Hormuz to stay closed. The IEA announced a record release of energy reserves, though it did little to calm markets.
• Rate picture muddied: Wednesday’s CPI report came in as expected, keeping the Fed on track to hold rates steady next week. But with oil surging and private credit funds at Morgan Stanley (MS 4.05%) and others limiting withdrawals amid rising investor anxiety, the broader economic outlook is getting harder to read.

Mortgage Rates Spike Past 6%

1:10 pm

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.11% this week, according to Freddie Mac, as geopolitical conflict and volatile energy prices reignited inflation fears. This 11-basis-point jump mirrors a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, which recently topped 4.20%. Despite the costlier borrowing environment, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 10% uptick in purchase volume, suggesting resilient demand as the spring buying season begins.

• Yield Curve Pressure: Market mechanics are moving aggressively against mortgage pricing as investors dump bonds in favor of the dollar amid Middle East uncertainty.
• The Buyer’s Threshold: While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac see rising applications, any further climb toward 7% could paralyze the 1.7% sales growth recently seen in the existing-home market.

Bitcoin Battles $100 Oil Volatility

1:05 pm — BTC +0.4%

Bitcoin (BTC +3.17%) dipped to $70,000 Thursday as Brent crude briefly reclaimed the $100 mark following fresh attacks on oil tankers. While risk-off sentiment hammered equities, the original cryptocurrency is behaving as a dual-natured asset — acting as both a high-risk victim of geopolitical tension and a highly liquid hedge. Despite the macro turbulence, technical indicators suggest a looming relief rally; funding rates on perpetual futures have hit five-week lows, a phenomenon that has historically preceded significant forward returns.

• The Whale Watch: Large-scale holders are reportedly aggressively accumulating supply in the low $60,000 to $70,000 range, effectively absorbing the “panic selling” triggered by Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
• The Liquidity Factor: Traders are increasingly favoring Bitcoin over traditional safe havens for its 24/7 liquidity, allowing for instantaneous repositioning as conflicting reports about a Middle East “off-ramp” continue to emerge.

Is Rivian’s R2 Enough to Beat Tesla?

12:35 pm — RIVN -4.5%

Rivian Automotive (RIVN 8.11%) is officially opening the order books for its high-stakes R2 electric SUV this spring, starting with a $58,000 “Launch Package.” While CEO RJ Scaringe frames this midsize SUV as a turning point for profitability, the initial price tag sits well above the $40,000 entry point of Tesla ’s (TSLA 3.14%) Model Y. Rivian has engineered the R2 with a new electrical architecture to slash manufacturing costs, but investors are wary: an affordable $45,000 base version won’t arrive until late 2027.

• Betting on Tech Loyalty: To sweeten the $58,000 pill, Rivian is bundling “lifetime” access to its Autonomy+ driver assistance, a move designed to lock users into its software ecosystem.
• The Margin Tightrope: Analysts remain cautious, noting that while the R2 scales production, launch costs for the third-generation platform could weigh on near-term earnings.

Rivian Automotive

Today’s Change

(-8.11%) $-1.35

Current Price

$15.30

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$19B

Day’s Range

$15.24 – $16.76

52wk Range

$10.36 – $22.69

Volume

215

Avg Vol

33M

Gross Margin

-276.59%

Microsoft Windows Head to Retire

12:20 pm — MSFT -0.2%

Microsoft (MSFT 0.73%) executive Rajesh Jha, the 34-year veteran leading the Experiences + Devices unit, announced his retirement effective July 1. Jha’s departure follows the recent exit of gaming chief Phil Spencer, marking a significant turnover of the “old guard” responsible for Windows, Office 365, and Surface hardware. CEO Satya Nadella is elevating AI-focused insiders, including new gaming CEO Asha Sharma, to steer these legacy divisions. As gaming revenue recently dipped 9.5% and hardware sales struggle against Sony, the software giant is clearly prioritizing a “new generation” of leadership to integrate generative AI across its most critical consumer and enterprise platforms.

• Succession in the Agentic Era: The promotion of AI veterans like Sharma signals a shift where game development and productivity apps will be rebuilt around autonomous agents rather than traditional interfaces.
• Cleaning Up the Balance Sheet: This leadership churn arrives as Microsoft navigates undisclosed impairment charges in gaming, suggesting the new executives have a mandate to slash costs and hit a 30% profit margin.

Shoppers Sue Costco For Double Recovery

11:45 am — COST +0.8%, FDX -1.5%

Costco Wholesale (COST +1.10%) is facing a nationwide class action after a February Supreme Court ruling struck down President Trump’s emergency import tariffs as an unlawful overreach. While Costco is among 2,000 companies suing the government to recoup an estimated $130 billion in duties, shoppers claim the retailer should pass those direct refunds back to the members who originally absorbed the higher shelf prices. Though CEO Ron Vachris pledged to channel any recovered funds into “lower prices and better value,” the lawsuit alleges this is a vague promise that allows for “double recovery” at the expense of past customers.

• A Shipping Precedent: Global logistics giant FedEx (FDX 2.29%) is battling a near-identical suit in Florida, suggesting a broad legal movement to ensure corporate tariff windfalls aren’t just pocketed as “windfall profits.”
• The “Importers-Only” Hurdle: Current U.S. trade law only allows “importers of record” to claim government refunds, leaving consumers entirely dependent on court-ordered disbursements or corporate goodwill for reimbursement.

Today’s Take: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

11:20 am — BTC -1.8%

Bitcoin (BTC +3.17%) has been on quite the ride over the past few years and is down more than 40% since its peak last fall. We asked our analysts for their takes on what’s ahead for the cryptocurrency:

Full disclosure: I’m in the “rat poison squared” camp on Bitcoin. Having said that, it’s certainly true that every crypto winter so far has given way to a rally. Buying the dip has always worked.

There’s one thing that’s different this time around: Bitcoin is truly mainstream. You don’t need to know anything about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency or crypto wallets. You can invest in Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds, treating it just like any stock or bond.

The problem is that it’s not like any stock or bond. Bitcoin is pure speculation. The investor base is now full of people who aren’t “true believers.” Instead, they’re chasing numbers that go up. When the numbers stop going up for too long, they’re gone. While anything’s possible, this crypto winter could be a rough one.

I am hardly a digital currency expert, but let me offer some personal thoughts: It is really hard to predict the short or even medium term performance of most stocks, despite a wealth of data at our disposal. The task is even harder with crypto currencies, including Bitcoin.

These “currencies” have no earnings, cash flows or business model. They are rarely used as a currency. The bull case for BTC is it could serve as a digital gold, or a safe haven of value.

Yet, even as precious metals hit all-time highs over the past year against a backdrop of inflation and declining USD, Bitcoin fell in value. However, BTC has shown tremendous value growth over many years, but predicting its next move belongs more to technical rather than fundamental analysis.

Today’s Change

(3.17%) $2228.36

Current Price

$72545.00

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.4T

Day’s Range

$69460.00 – $72425.00

52wk Range

$60255.56 – $126079.89

Volume

51B

Google Challenges Rivals With AI Maps

10:00 am — GOOG -1.4%

Alphabet (GOOG 1.69%) is overhauling its most popular utility with “Ask Maps,” a Gemini-powered chatbot designed to handle complex, conversational queries. With over 2 billion monthly users, Google Maps remains the top navigation app, but analysts have long flagged the service as under-monetized. By integrating personalized AI that suggests stops based on battery life or specific amenities, Google aims to increase user “dwell time” and fend off emerging AI search rivals. While ads aren’t included at launch, the move signals a major step toward transforming the 20-year-old app into a high-intent revenue engine for the agentic era.

• Mining Location Data: The feature utilizes 20 years of proprietary mapping intelligence and renewable energy data to offer insights — like finding public tennis courts with lighting — that static GPS cannot provide.
• The Invisible Paywall: Although currently ad-free, the infrastructure allows Google to eventually integrate sponsored placements into AI-driven recommendations, potentially unlocking a multi-billion dollar revenue stream.

Palantir Sticks With Anthropic’s Blacklisted AI

10:05 am — PLTR +0.7%

Palantir Technologies (PLTR +1.25%) CEO Alex Karp confirmed at the company’s AIPcon 9 that its software remains integrated with Anthropic’s Claude, despite the start-up’s recent blacklisting by the Department of Defense. While the Pentagon labeled Anthropic a “supply chain risk” for refusing to strip safety guardrails, Karp noted that military operations in Iran still rely on the model via Palantir’s platform. Shares rose 1% as investors weighed the company’s essential role as the “brain of the battlefield.” To mitigate future disruption, Palantir is already preparing to integrate alternative large language models, ensuring its $10 billion defense contract pipeline remains insulated from shifting geopolitical alliances.

• The Integration Moat: Replacing Claude isn’t a simple toggle; Palantir must rewrite complex mission workflows and prompts, a process that could take months and millions in engineering costs.
• A Patriotic Pivot: By signaling a move toward other models, Palantir is positioning itself to capture market share from rivals while maintaining its status as the military’s primary AI gateway.

Palantir Technologies

Today’s Change

(1.25%) $1.90

Current Price

$153.50

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$367B

Day’s Range

$151.00 – $155.88

52wk Range

$66.12 – $207.52

Volume

3.3K

Avg Vol

49M

Gross Margin

82.37%

Opening Bell

9:35 am — XOM +0.4%, CVX +0.6%, MS -3.5%

The Dow plunged 547 points Thursday as Brent crude futures retook $100 per barrel. Selling accelerated after Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted the U.S. Navy is currently “not ready” to escort tankers through the shuttered Strait of Hormuz. While ExxonMobil (XOM +1.29%) and Chevron (CVX +2.90%) found bids, broader markets buckled under the threat of a prolonged supply freeze. Even a massive 172-million-barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve failed to offset the panic caused by fresh attacks on foreign vessels. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (MS 4.05%) pressured the financial sector after restricting withdrawals from its private credit fund, further dampening investor sentiment.

Top of the morning: Nintendo

9:10 am — NTDOY -1.2% in pre-market trading

Shares of Japanese gaming company Nintendo (NTDOY 0.57%) are up over 15% this week due to a catalyst that it seems the company itself didn’t even see coming. Pokémon Pokopia, a Switch 2 exclusive Pokémon-themed life simulation spinoff game, has sold over 2.2 million copies in its first four days on the market, making it the fourth best-selling game on the Switch 2 console and already one of the most successful Pokémon spin-offs of all time.

Reports suggest Nintendo’s internal expectation for Pokopia was 8 million units over its lifetime, and the game has already cleared more than a quarter of that in under a week. Physical copies are not only selling out at retailers globally, but Amazon has reportedly been raising prices on remaining inventory as well.

This is surprising because Pokopia isn’t a classic mega-hit like a Mario game or mainline Pokémon title.

Today’s Change

(-0.57%) $-0.09

Current Price

$15.81

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$74B

Day’s Range

$15.50 – $16.00

52wk Range

$13.05 – $24.92

Volume

4M

Avg Vol

3.1M

Gross Margin

40.42%

Dividend Yield

0.27%

Top of the morning: Netflix

8:45 am — NFLX -0.67% in pre-market trading

Netflix (NFLX 0.73%) is betting big — up to $600 million big — on Ben Affleck’s AI start-up, InterPositive. As a long-term shareholder, I’m weighing the “wow” factor against the “why.”

The bull case is simple: operating leverage. If InterPositive’s “human-centric” AI can streamline the grueling VFX and post-production cycles, Netflix isn’t just buying a tool; they’re building a proprietary production engine. It’s about shortening the gap between a creator’s vision and the global “Play” button, potentially slashing budgets while maintaining “prestige” quality.

As a part of the acquisition, Ben Affleck will join as a Senior Advisor. He developed the tools specifically to assist filmmakers, rather than replace them. The tools aren’t built to train on films without permission or generate new projects without the base film.

However, as a Foolish investor, I’m watching the “creative friction” closely. $600 million is a hefty premium for an early stage firm, and “AI” remains a polarizing word in Hollywood. There’s a delicate balance between tech efficiency and alienating the talent Netflix needs to survive.

Top of the morning: Oracle

6:15 am — ORCL -0.61% in pre-market trading

Shares of Oracle (ORCL 2.46%) closed over 9% higher yesterday on what the Street appears to believe were exceptional third-quarter results.

I can understand why. Oracle told investors that, among other things, remaining performance obligations (RPO) soared 325% year-over-year to $553 billion. Taken at face value, those figures would tell you that Oracle has established itself as a foundational provider of AI data center infrastructure. Hard to not love that, right?

Maybe. Page six of the 10-Q quarterly report offers context that I find … troubling.

Uber and Nissan to Launch Tokyo Robotaxis by 2026

8:00 am — UBER -0.31% in pre-market trading

Uber Technologies (UBER 2.83%) and Nissan Motor have finalized a deal with AI start-up Wayve to launch autonomous robotaxis in Tokyo by late 2026. The partnership will integrate Wayve’s “mapless” AI driving system into the Nissan LEAF, allowing the electric vehicles to navigate Tokyo’s dense urban streets via the Uber app. This marks Uber’s first autonomous foray into Japan, a market currently facing severe driver shortages. While the initial pilot will include safety operators, the move is part of a broader strategy to scale robotic fleets across 10 global cities. For Nissan, the collaboration offers a high-tech lifeline as it seeks to recover from recent restructuring costs by monetizing its EV portfolio through autonomous “mobility-as-a-service.”

• Regulatory Navigation: Uber is sidestepping local hurdles by operating through licensed taxi partners, ensuring compliance with Japan’s strict transport laws while scaling its autonomous footprint.
• Mapless Edge: Unlike competitors that rely on expensive HD mapping, Wayve’s “embodied AI” learns from real-time data, potentially allowing Uber to launch in complex cities faster and with lower overhead than rivals.

Uber Technologies

Today’s Change

(-2.83%) $-2.12

Current Price

$72.85

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$150B

Day’s Range

$72.60 – $75.83

52wk Range

$60.63 – $101.99

Volume

259

Avg Vol

21M

Gross Margin

32.89%

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — TBBB -2.15% in pre-market trading

BBB Foods (TBBB 6.70%) fell over 2% ahead of the opening bell as results showed a higher-than-expected net loss, marking the fourth consecutive quarter where the company hasn’t surpassed consensus earnings per share estimates. Revenue rose by 34.4% versus the same period last year.

• “While EBITDA margin is an important metric, we do not manage the business to achieve a specific margin target in any given quarter”: CEO K.Anthony Hatoum guided investors away from focusing on profitability and instead pointed to “opening successful stores, continuously improving value for our customers, and operating with increasing efficiency.”
• “BBB Foods’ business model encourages expansion, and Hatoum has definitely favored aggressive growth strategies”: Reviewing the company earlier this week, Fool contributing analyst Dan Caplinger said “shoppers have consistently visited BBB Foods stores more frequently over time, and when they go, they have also tended to spend more.” The stock is beating the S&P 500 by 17% since the July 2025 Rule Breakers recommendation.

U.S. Launches Trade Probe into 16 Nations

7:25 am

The U.S. has launched Section 301 unfair trade practice probes into countries including China, the European Union, and India, potentially paving the way for new levies this summer to replace existing tariff policies.

• “We expect that this investigation will uncover a variety of unfair trading practices related to excess capacity and production in manufacturing”: U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer expects to conclude the investigation before the current temporary tariff measures expire in July. Of the 16 countries included, Canada is a notable exception of a large trading partner not mentioned.
• India pushes export incentives to lure U.S. Big Tech: India is planning more smartphone manufacturing boosts where companies use locally made components, a move that will benefit Apple (AAPL 1.93%), who account for almost 75% of the country’s smartphone exports.

Atlassian Cuts 1,600 Jobs in Bold AI-First Pivot

6:00 am — TEAM +2.39% in pre-market trading

Atlassian (TEAM 2.80%) is eliminating 1,600 roles–roughly 10% of its global staff–as it aggressively pivots toward an “AI-first” business model. In a candid memo, co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes noted that while AI isn’t strictly replacing workers, it has fundamentally altered the skill mix required to compete. The restructuring coincides with the departure of CTO Rajeev Rajan, who will be replaced by two “next-generation” AI-focused leaders. For investors, the $225 million to $236 million in anticipated restructuring charges represents a steep but necessary price to “self-fund” AI R&D and enterprise sales, especially as the company faces increasing pressure to prove its software tools remain essential in an automated era.

• Surgical Skill-Swapping: Unlike the broad pandemic-era cuts, these reductions specifically target R&D and engineering roles to clear “headcount room” for specialists in generative AI.
• Financial Rebalancing: By curbing headcount now, Atlassian aims to accelerate its path to sustained GAAP profitability, a key demand from shareholders after a volatile 2026 for the stock.

ICYMI: Wednesday’s Scoreboard

5:30 am — NXT unchanged in pre-market trading

Nextpower (NXT 0.72%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

Before the Opening Bell

5:15 am

Wall Street is grappling with a dual threat as stock futures decline in the face of a widening conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel on Thursday following reports of tankers being struck near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for 20% of global supply. While February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrived at a predictable 2.4%, the “war premium” on energy is stoking fears that inflation will prove stickier than anticipated. Investors are now pivoting to Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report to see if the Federal Reserve still has room to ease rates or if the energy-driven spike in gasoline will force a more hawkish stance through the spring.

• The Hormuz Stranglehold: Major energy players like Chevron (CVX +2.90%) and ExxonMobil (XOM +1.29%) are in the spotlight as the International Energy Agency coordinates a record 400-million-barrel reserve release to offset the blockade.
• Inflationary Tug-of-War: Despite core CPI cooling, the 18% jump in pump prices since February’s end threatens to derail the Fed’s path toward a soft landing, making the upcoming PCE reading a high-stakes catalyst for volatility.