Tesla’s Optimus Robot is Seriously Impressive. Is it Enough Reason to Buy the Stock?
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) shareholders are hanging in there after the latest 17% descent from recent highs, and a lot of it is likely due to the tremendous promise offered by the future of robotics and robotaxis. Undoubtedly, electric vehicle (EVs) sales arguably haven’t been the needle-mover on the shares for quite a while. But when exactly is this big moment for physical AI going to happen? And if it takes more than a few years for robots to really take off, will the Elon Musk fans continue to hang onto their shares?
These are big questions that only time will tell. And while it’s becoming incredibly difficult to evaluate shares without a futurist’s mindset and Elon Musk-level ambitions of what’s to come, I do think that it’s tempting to place a small bet on Tesla stock over the Optimus hype alone, provided you’re willing to hang on for a ride that could prove far more stomach-churning than the likes of any other Mag Seven stock, perhaps with the exception of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
With Tesla ending Model S and X production to make room for Optimus, I think it’s time to think of the science-fiction humanoid as more than just a fancy demo to show off at events. Undoubtedly, Musk probably wouldn’t halt production of two impressive models of Tesla unless there was something bigger, more pressing to concentrate efforts on.
Tesla’s going all-in on physical AI
With all the CapEx spend in artificial intelligence (AI) among the Mag Seven and the great Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pointing to the “physical AI” opportunity to come, it certainly feels like exciting things are in store as the AI boom moves towards its fourth year (it’s been close to three and a half years since ChatGPT changed the world with GPT-3.5).
Of course, there’s one issue for everyday retail investors: we’ve probably not had hands-on experience with the next generation of robots. While AI was a big thing before we all had a chance to try GPT-3.5 around three years ago, it’s just tough to understand the magnitude of what’s to come until you’ve had a hands-on experience.
Whether the next generation of world models will push humanoid robots into the mainstream, though, remains to be seen. For now, it seems just a tad too far-fetched to think that a home robot could take care of all the chores, the cooking, the package deliveries and all the sort.
Whether Optimus can change this, though, remains the trillion-dollar question. For now, Tesla has pushed Optimus into its third generation. The hardware has more degrees of freedom, and the dexterity may inch us closer to a consumer robotics boom. In the meantime, Elon Musk and company are spending quite heavily in its 500MW supercomputer, the brains behind Tesla’s impressive humanoid robot.
Optimus is getting better — and fast!
Just over a month ago, Tesla expanded its training program for Optimus. In essence, the impressive robot is already learning how to go about its day at the local factory in Texas. As the robots move from “simple tasks” to more complicated things in the coming two years, perhaps it’s not just the white-collar jobs that will be at risk from the rise of AI. At this juncture, Optimus is essentially a trainee, but that in itself is seriously impressive. What’s more impressive is what the robot could become once it’s ready to move beyond the factory.
Though it’s unclear when robots will be sophisticated enough to make other robots without much human intervention (probably when agentic AI takes off), those waiting to have their own Optimus might not have to wait all too long before they can pick one up.
With sales potentially in the cards for late-2027, perhaps true believers in physical AI might have enough of a narrative to buy shares of Tesla without even thinking about EVs. Any way you look at it, the firm already looks positioned to move well beyond EVs. And while there’s timing risk (Optimus delays can happen), it might not matter to the Musk fans who’ve proven incredibly patient with the stock.