Can Gold Get Back Up to $5,000 This Year?

At the start of the year, it looked as though the price of gold was only going in one direction: up. It rose to more than $5,600 per ounce and reached a new all-time high in January. But it has proven to be a volatile investment ever since. On Monday, it was around $4,500 — down roughly 20% from its highs.

However, with plenty of uncertainty still out there, the S&P 500 declining, and the war in Iran still not coming to an end, investors may be wondering if this traditionally safe-haven investment may be due to rise higher this year. Can gold get back to $5,000?

Why has the price of gold been falling?

Normally, in the midst of market turmoil, gold can offer investors some much-needed safety. Instead, it’s been a volatile investment in recent months. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 0.03%) fund, which tracks gold, is up just 5% since the start of the year, effectively giving back the gains it had amassed in January. And now, it’s down about 19% from its 52-week high.

The big turning point took place in late January, when President Trump announced his nomination for the new Fed chair — Kevin Warsh. The news crippled the price of gold in the process, in a possible sign that the market saw Warsh as a safe choice, and thus, reduced some of the risk in the market.

The war in Iran would eventually lead to a rise in the price of gold, but the precious metal has again been falling back down in recent weeks, likely due to the expectation that the conflict may soon come to an end.

Investors should brace for volatility

It’s difficult to predict where gold will go this year because its movements have at times been erratic and sudden. Investors have reacted quickly to changing market conditions, and that volatility can make it a risky asset to hold this year. A lot may ultimately depend on not only what happens with the Fed but also in Iran and other countries.

Gold could conceivably rise to $5,000 again due to the market’s unpredictability. But at the same time, it could also fall to less than $4,000 if the war in Iran comes to an end and investor concerns ease. And that unpredictability is exactly why I wouldn’t rely on gold as a safe-haven investment this year. If you want to reduce your risk, you may want to consider investing in utility stocks or other low-volatility investments instead.