Stock Market Today (LIVE): Stocks Slip as Iran Ultimatum Countdown and Rising Oil Prices Overshadow Durable Goods Data

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Will Congress Block ASML’s Biggest Market?

10:05 am — ASML -2.1%

Shares of ASML (ASML 2.23%) fell Tuesday following the introduction of the MATCH Act by U.S. lawmakers, a bipartisan bill designed to tighten semiconductor export loopholes. The legislation specifically targets deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines—older but essential tools that Chinese manufacturers still rely on for mainstream chips. While ASML has already faced restrictions on its most advanced gear, this new move threatens a “fragile” segment that previously stayed under the radar. With China projected to drop from 33% to 20% of ASML’s total sales this year even before this proposal, investors are weighing the risk of a significant mid-term revenue hit.

• Quantifying the Exposure: Analysts estimate that a broad DUV ban could jeopardize roughly 5% of ASML’s total revenue, as China accounts for nearly half of the demand for these specific lithography tools.
• The Geopolitical Overhang: While domestic Chinese chipmakers have previously found workarounds for Nvidia (NVDA 1.66%) hardware, there is currently no viable local alternative to ASML’s specialized machinery, making this a potential “choke point” for the industry.

Delta Hikes Bag Fees Amid Fuel Surge

9:25 am — DAL flat in pre-market trading

Delta Air Lines (DAL 1.39%) raised its checked bag fees by $10 for tickets purchased starting Wednesday, following similar moves by United Airlines (UAL 3.32%) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU 2.52%). The carrier now charges $45 for a first checked bag as jet fuel prices have surged nearly 88% since late February due to Middle East conflict and shipping channel closures. With fuel representing the largest variable expense for carriers, investors are bracing for Delta’s first-quarter earnings report on Wednesday morning to see if strong travel demand can offset these ballooning operational costs.

• The Fuel Price Pinch: Jet fuel costs recently hit $4.69 per gallon, a staggering spike that threatens to erase profit margins despite high passenger volumes.
• Pricing Power Test: Industry experts are watching whether customers will tolerate higher ancillary fees or if these hikes will eventually dampen the current post-pandemic travel boom.

Novo Unleashes Wegovy HD in GLP-1 Battle

8:45 am — NVO -0.76% in pre-market trading

Novo Nordisk (NVO 1.28%) launched a high-dose version of its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Wegovy HD, across the United States on Tuesday. The new 7.2 mg injectable–triple the strength of the previous 2.4 mg limit–received priority FDA approval to address the surging demand for more potent obesity treatments. To capture market share from competitors, Novo is offering the drug to cash-paying patients for $399 per month and plans a discounted subscription model. This aggressive pricing and dosage scaling signal a major effort to regain momentum in the lucrative GLP-1 sector following recent gains by rivals.

• Obesity Market Rivalry: The rollout intensifies the battle with Eli Lilly (LLY 2.11%), as both pharmaceutical giants race to optimize dosage and affordability to secure long-term patient loyalty.
• Insurance and Access Strategy: By leveraging a National Priority Review Voucher and low copays for the commercially insured, Novo aims to cement Wegovy as the preferred choice for telehealth providers and pharmacy networks.

Novo Nordisk

Today’s Change

(-1.28%) $-0.47

Current Price

$36.20

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$124B

Day’s Range

$35.98 – $36.44

52wk Range

$35.12 – $81.44

Volume

103K

Avg Vol

24M

Gross Margin

80.90%

Dividend Yield

4.91%

Amazon and USPS Strike Last-Mile Compromise

8:30 am — AMZN +0.16% in pre-market trading

Amazon (AMZN 1.34%) and the U.S. Postal Service have reached a tentative package-handling agreement, backing away from a proposed two-thirds volume cut that threatened to upend rural logistics. Under the new terms, Amazon will reduce its USPS shipments by only 20%, ensuring the agency continues to handle over 1 billion packages annually. This compromise stabilizes Amazon’s “last-mile” network while protecting roughly $6 billion in revenue for the struggling Postal Service, which faced a $9 billion loss last fiscal year. While Amazon continues to expand its own logistics arm, the deal highlights its ongoing reliance on external partners for difficult-to-reach regions.

• Logistics Competitive Landscape: By maintaining high volumes with USPS, Amazon avoids over-reliance on rivals like United Parcel Service (UPS 1.38%) or FedEx (FDX 0.76%), who have previously scaled back their partnerships with the e-commerce titan.
• Rural Infrastructure Moat: The deal allows Amazon to sustain its one-to-two-day delivery promises in low-density areas without the immediate capital expenditure required to fully replace the Postal Service’s massive existing ground network.

Today’s Change

(-1.34%) $-2.86

Current Price

$209.93

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$2.3T

Day’s Range

$209.65 – $212.50

52wk Range

$165.28 – $258.60

Volume

243K

Avg Vol

50M

Gross Margin

50.29%

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — UNH +6.62%, CVS +6.56%, HUM +10.53% in pre-market trading

Health insurance stocks jumped in early trading after the Trump administration boosted Medicare spending much higher than had been anticipated. Payments for Medicare Advantage – the government-subsidised privately run health insurance plan, popular with older people – will be lifted by 2.48% in 2027, well above the 0.09% rise proposed in January.

• Health insurance stocks pop: UnitedHealth (UNH +7.76%) gained nearly 8% pre-market, with CVS Health (CVS +3.84%) – recommended in Stock Advisor by Team Rule Breakers – up close to 7%. The two had fallen 20% and 15% respectively on the back of the earlier, lower, spending plans. Humana (HUM +6.90%) jumped over 11% on the news, but – still down 29% year to date – remains the hardest hit of the three.
• “Healthcare in the United States isn’t perfect … Can CVS magically fix everything?”: When CVS was removed from the SA Penalty Box late last year, Fool contributing analyst Toby Bordelon added “Of course not. But … we’re happy to invest in that mission.”

Ackman Targets Universal in Record Music Takeover

7:00am

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square (PSHZF 0.37%) announced a massive 55.8 billion euro bid to acquire Universal Music Group (UNVGY +10.22%) and take the music titan public on the New York Stock Exchange. The deal offers a whopping 78% premium over recent prices, aiming to resolve what Ackman calls “languishing” share performance caused by poor shareholder communication and listing delays. If the merger closes by year-end, UMG will undergo a significant board refresh, potentially seating entertainment mogul Michael Ovitz as chairman to better capitalize on its world-class artist roster.

• Strategic Re-Rating: Moving UMG to a primary U.S. listing aims to unlock valuation parity with Big Tech peers like Alphabet (GOOG 0.66%), which also benefits from music streaming growth via YouTube.
• Governance Overhaul: The proposed acquisition seeks to clear the “Bollore overhang” and install Pershing affiliates on the board, signaling a shift toward more aggressive, investor-friendly management and transparent corporate governance.

ICYMI: Monday’s Scoreboard

6:30 am — KTOS -0.22% in pre-market trading

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS 4.20%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.

SpaceX Eyes $2T Valuation in Historic IPO

6:00 am

In a virtual meeting with its bankers Monday, SpaceX laid out plans for a large allocation of shares to retail investors at its upcoming IPO, reports Reuters. The show should hit the road the week of June 8, with the company pitching to around 1,500 potential investors – with retail investors from the U.K., E.U., and other countries able to buy in.

• “Retail is going to be a critical part of this and ​a bigger part than any IPO in history”: CFO Bret Johnsen told the meeting “those are folks that have been incredibly supportive of us and of Elon (Musk) for a long time, and we want to make sure that we recognize that.”
• Biggest IPO ever?: SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation of over $2 trillion – seven and a half years since Apple (AAPL 3.80%) became the world’s first trillion-dollar company. The IPO is expected to raise around $75 billion, as Bloomberg says SpaceX has been burning through $1 billion per month since acquiring xAI.

Samsung Projects Eightfold Profit Surge

5:15 am

Samsung Electronics (SSNLF +55.02%) shares rallied Tuesday following a preliminary guidance report forecasting a staggering eightfold increase in quarterly operating profit. The tech giant projects earnings of 57.2 trillion won, nearly tripling its previous record and crushing analyst estimates. This massive growth is fueled by explosive demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips essential for AI computing. As memory prices are expected to climb another 50% next quarter, Samsung is rapidly closing the gap with rival SK Hynix to secure dominance in the high-margin AI hardware space.

• Broad Tech Implications: A hardware resurgence signals a bullish cycle for AI infrastructure players like Alphabet (GOOG 0.66%), though rising component costs may eventually pinch margins for cloud providers.
• Geopolitical Headwinds: Despite record guidance, the escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran threatens semiconductor supply chains, as shortages of critical manufacturing materials like helium pose a risk to long-term production stability.

Before the Opening Bell

5:00 am

Stock futures turned lower Tuesday as investors tracked a high-stakes ultimatum from President Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz. With an 8:00 p.m. ET deadline looming, the administration has threatened strikes on Iranian infrastructure unless the vital waterway fully reopens to global shipping. While Monday’s gains were fueled by hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, crude oil prices have surged past $110 per barrel as the “countdown clock” returns. This geopolitical friction puts significant pressure on energy-dependent sectors and global supply chains, overshadowing upcoming data on February durable goods orders.

• Energy Sector Volatility: Elevated crude prices could provide a short-term lift for producers like Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB +0.03%) holding Chevron (CVX +2.79%), but sustained conflict risks broader inflationary pressure.
• Tech and Logistics Exposure: Continued disruption in the Strait threatens energy costs for Alphabet (GOOG 0.66%) data centers and impacts shipping-sensitive retailers.