Retail investors are buying the dip in Tesla stock

The bottom hunters are stalking Tesla’s (TSLA) battered stock price.

Tesla has seen a strong $256 million in retail inflows over the past five days and consistent dip-buying, the team at Vanda Research wrote in a new note. The influx of cash reflects “strong” conviction in Tesla, Vanda said.

By comparison, demand to buy other names in the “Magnificent Seven” complex, such as Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT), has cooled, according to Vanda’s data.

“Retail remains engaged, but flows are less aggressive, more tactical, and increasingly selective, with a growing defensive bias under the hood,” Vanda added.

Tesla shares are already down 23% this year, making it the worst-performing member of the Magnificent Seven.

The stock’s horrible year so far reflects several factors.

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, missing analyst estimates of roughly 366,000 to 370,000 units. Although this represents a 6.3% increase year over year, the growth came from a depressed baseline, and the absolute numbers showed a significant sequential decline from the record-breaking fourth quarter of last year.

The expiration of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit in the US at the end of last year at the hands of the Trump administration dealt a major blow to domestic demand for electric vehicles. Additionally, persistent high interest rates have made vehicle financing more expensive for the average buyer.

Meanwhile, Tesla is facing brutal pressure from Chinese electric vehicle rivals like BYD (BYDDY), as well as legacy automakers such as Mercedes-Benz (MBG.DE), General Motors (GM), and Ford (F), who continue to forge ahead with EV production, though at a slower pace.

“With expectations for Tesla performance having collapsed for all financial and performance metrics across all time periods through the end of the decade, the +50% rise in Tesla shares and +32% increase in analyst price targets as this collapse has taken place implies an expectation for a sharp pivot to materially better than earlier expected performance in the time beyond this decade,” JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman wrote in a note out on Monday.

“We advise investors [to] cautiously approach this expectation within the context of both execution risk and the time value of money,” he said.

Brinkman reiterated a Sell rating on Tesla. His $145 price target estimates Tesla’s stock plunging about 60% from current levels.

Added Brinkman, “Investors should in our view be mindful when assessing the implied inflection higher in Tesla performance starting sometime beyond this decade (when results are presumably expected to begin tracking materially stronger than earlier expected, in contrast to materially weaker than earlier expected).”