Oil prices rise above $100, North American stock market holds steady as U.S.-Iran tensions continue

Oil prices are back above $100 US per barrel after 21 hours of ceasefire talks failed to end the war with Iran. But North American stocks are nevertheless holding steady in an indication that Wall Street still sees a chance for both sides to avoid a worst-case scenario for the global economy.

The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged in morning trading after erasing an earlier dip. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 256 points, or 0.5 per cent, as of 11:45 a.m. ET, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3 per cent higher.

In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 2.30 points at 33,698.06.

The oil market showed more concern, as prices there jumped roughly six per cent. The moves were more modest than the extreme swings that have been hitting financial markets since the war began in late February.

After the weekend’s talks failed, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

A blockade would keep even more oil off the global market, after prices already jumped worldwide because of shortfalls due to Iran’s restrictions on traffic in the important strait. That narrow waterway is how much of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf area reaches customers worldwide. Iran immediately responded with threats on all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The price of Brent crude, the international standard, rose back to $101.90 US per barrel and is well above its roughly $70 US price from before the war. But it remains below the $119 US peak it’s touched at times when worries about the U.S.-Iran war have been at their heights — and pulled back from its nearly $104 price reached earlier Monday morning.

“Markets are taking some encouragement from the fact that the two sides are talking and that the broader ceasefire seems to be holding, for now,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Oil-and-gas companies were relatively strong on the stock market as crude prices rose. Halliburton gained 1.9 per cent, and ConocoPhillips climbed 1.1 per cent.

In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury edged up to 4.33 per cent from 4.31 per cent late Friday.

In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9 per cent, and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.9 per cent for two of the world’s larger losses.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, managing director, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong about the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”