The eurozone’s goods trade surplus is under structural threat

That steady, strong trade surplus of the 2010s was interrupted abruptly by the energy shock of 2021/22. While the eurozone had always been a net importer of energy, the dramatic reduction of Russian gas supply pushed energy costs sharply higher, dragging the total trade balance into a deficit. Since then, it has diversified away from cheap Russian energy, but towards pricier alternatives, which has kept pressure on the trade balance. Overall, the eurozone goods trade surplus still remains almost 30% lower than in 2019.

Renewed tensions linked to the oil shortages arising from the war in the Middle East will put the eurozone’s trade surplus under pressure again this year. To illustrate this, let’s assume that goods trade volumes remain unchanged from 2025. Focusing only on the first‑round effects of higher energy import prices, the trade balance could fall sharply to €49bn in 2026, from €149bn in 2025. This scenario assumes our base case, in which disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz continue until July but ease gradually.

In a more pessimistic scenario where the disruptions are stronger and continue until August, the eurozone’s trade balance risks falling into a significant deficit again at -€115bn in 2026.

Clearly, the eurozone’s dependence on external energy makes it vulnerable to short- and long-term shocks in the energy markets. After a period of very benign geopolitics, the renewed tensions of the 2020s are increasing volatility in the eurozone’s trade balance and, for now, are resulting in a lower average trade surplus.