Estimated 2027 Social Security increase remains low as $50,000 benefits cap proposed

Social Security beneficiaries aren’t expected to see too much of an increase to their payments next year. Meanwhile a new proposal calls for a cap on how much they can receive.

Earlier this month the non-partisan senior advocacy group, The Senior Citizens League, released its latest cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) estimate. The latest data predicts a 2.8% increase to benefits in 2027, the same percentage as 2026’s increase.

As with previous estimates, TSCL leadership says that increase isn’t enough to meet the needs of seniors. Rising costs continue to impact seniors who are struggling to make ends meet. After receiving an 8.7% increase in 2023, beneficiaries received a 3.2% increase in 2024 and a 2.5% bump in 2025.

TSCL also warned of a recent proposal by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget that calls for a cap on yearly benefits. Under the proposal, benefits would be capped at $50,000 per person and $100,000 per couple annually.

The plan is designed to save Social Security between $100 billion to $190 billion over a decade. Those savings would presumably address at least 20% of the agency’s solvency gap and over time, boost benefits for 70% to 80% of beneficiaries.

The TSCL, however, says that move would further hurt seniors.

“Rather than taking away benefits from people who have paid into the system their entire working lives, we should focus on strengthening America’s pension system,” said TSCL executive director Shannon Benton. “Seniors tell us over and over that their benefits don’t go as far as they used to, and many younger people worry if the program will have atrophied to a shadow of its former self by the time they reach retirement age, even as taxes on their wages cover today’s benefits.”

TSCL says its research found that 95% of seniors oppose benefits cuts for current retirees, while 66% oppose cuts for future retirees.

Currently, there are about 1 million individual Social Security beneficiaries who receive at least $50,000, or $100,000 as a married couple. That represents roughly 2% of the 56 million beneficiaries over the age of 65.

However, the number of people collecting that much is expected to rise drastically in the coming years, as more high earners hit retirement age and inflation continues to drive the annual cost-of-living-adjustment.

“Proposals that focus on capping Social Security don’t address the problem in front of Congress: ensuring every American gets every dollar they have earned,” said AARP vice president for financial security and livable communities Jenn Jones in a statement. “What’s worse, ideas like this risk becoming a backdoor to broader cuts.”

In order to receive more than $100,000 as a couple, retirees must have earned at least the Social Security taxable maximum income, which is $184,500. That income level must have been earned for at least 35 years and the benefits must have been claimed at the retiree’s full retirement age, which is 67 this year.

“Americans are right to worry about our current COLA projection. The fact is that most senior households already get by on only about 58% as much income as their working-age counterparts, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a middle-class or working-class American who thinks the economy is doing well right now, especially as oil prices rise,” Benton said.

“Reforming Social Security needs to follow a two-pronged approach, strengthening revenues and benefits at the same time to ensure prosperity for all Americans, of all ages.”

The annual COLA is calculated by using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) for the months of July, August and September. That number is then compared to the same time period from the year prior and the COLA is calculated from there. The CPI-W factors in the spending habits of Americans when it comes to items like food, consumer goods, housing, health care and more.

The 2027 COLA is expected to be announced in October 2026.

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