Nvidia Is Worth $5 Trillion Once Again. Here's Why It Could Become the First $10 Trillion Stock Within the Next 3 Years.
In October, Nvidia (NVDA 0.34%) became the world’s first company to achieve a $5 trillion market cap. However, the semiconductor giant’s stock hit a rough patch after that due to various factors such as concerns about the sustainability of heavy spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and how geopolitical issues might affect the company.
So, while the broader PHLX Semiconductor Sector index has soared by 40% over the past six months, Nvidia’s gains were just 11%. The good news for investors is that Nvidia stock has regained its upward momentum lately, rising more than 21% in April as of this writing. This has allowed it to reclaim its $5 trillion market cap crown.
It won’t be surprising to see Nvidia sustaining that momentum. In fact, there is a good chance it will become the world’s first $10 trillion company within the next three years.
Image source: Nvidia
Nvidia is poised to win big in the AI inference era
Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) have played a central role in the training of popular large language models (LLMs) over the past three and a half years. Now, the company is setting itself up for growth in the AI inference era.
Today’s Change
(-0.34%) $-0.67
Current Price
$198.90
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$4.8T
Day’s Range
$197.12 – $203.00
52wk Range
$110.82 – $216.82
Volume
106M
Avg Vol
176M
Gross Margin
71.07%
Dividend Yield
0.02%
Inference is simply the process of putting trained AI models to work on new problems using previously unseen data. However, it doesn’t require as much raw computing power as training does, which is why hyperscalers and AI companies have been buying more custom AI processors for their cost efficiency and performance advantages.
But Nvidia is not going to sit back and let itself lose ground as the chip market shifts. Citing benchmarks from semiconductor and AI infrastructure-focused data analytics provider SemiAnalysis, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress remarked on the February earnings call:
SemiAnalysis declared Nvidia Corporation inference king, as recent results from InferenceX reinforced our inference leadership, with GB300 and NVL72 achieving up to 50x performance per watt and 35x lower cost per token, compared with offerings.
Meanwhile, Nvidia claims that its upcoming Vera Rubin processors can reduce inference costs by 90% as compared to its previous-generation Blackwell GB200 processors. That huge savings on AI inference costs is probably the reason why it’s anticipating a combined $1 trillion in data center sales from the Blackwell and Vera Rubin processors in 2026 and 2027.
What’s worth noting here is that just six months ago, Nvidia said it was anticipating a combined $500 billion worth of Blackwell and Rubin sales for 2025 and 2026. Clearly, the company’s focus on building more efficient AI inference chips is encouraging customers to place more orders. That’s why analysts have been upgrading their revenue growth estimates for the company.
NVDA Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts.
Moreover, Nvidia is supplying its chips to top AI companies developing applications such as AI agents and physical AI. Management notes that it has partnerships with Anthropic, Meta Platforms, xAI, and OpenAI — companies that are already seeing strong adoption of their AI inference applications.
On the other hand, the company generated $6 billion in revenue from the physical AI market in 2025. Physical AI applications include automated factory robots and robotaxis, and Nvidia has been partnering with multiple companies in both areas to ensure it makes the most of a market that the researchers at Research and Markets forecast will grow by more than eightfold over the next 15 years to $3.25 trillion.
In all, Nvidia still seems to have a lot of room for long-term growth. However, the company shouldn’t take very long to reach $10 trillion in market cap.
The math to support a $10 trillion market cap
Nvidia is trading at 42.5 times earnings right now. That’s expensive when compared to the Nasdaq-100 index’s earnings multiple of 33.4 (using the tech-heavy index as a proxy for tech stocks). However, that premium valuation is justified by the company’s market-beating earnings growth potential.
Its bottom line is expected to jump by 75% in the current fiscal year to $8.34 per share. For comparison, the tech sector’s earnings are estimated to have jumped by 44% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, according to wealth management firm LPL Financial. Nvidia, therefore, is poised to outperform the tech sector this year.
Importantly, it is expected to sustain healthy earnings growth for the next couple of years as well.
NVDA EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts.
If Nvidia achieves $13.60 per share in earnings in its fiscal 2029 (which will end in January 2029) and trades at 33 times earnings at that time (in line with the Nasdaq-100 index’s average earnings multiple), its stock would trade at $449. That’s more than double its price right now. This suggests that this AI company could indeed breach the $10 trillion market cap mark in the next three years.
So, it isn’t too late for investors to buy Nvidia, as the world’s ongoing massive investments in AI data centers are likely to translate into more upside for the stock.