Dow Jones and S&P500: US Stocks Turn Cautious as Crude Oil Volatility

The buying has been aggressive for over a month with traders willing to take out offers. There hasn’t really been a lot of opportunity for passive bidding. Pay attention to this because it often signals a pullback is coming. The two most recent downswings have been 92.00 and 53.75. This gives us an indicator of how big the selloffs have to be to turn momentum.

Today, I’ll be watching to see if traders are still buying offers by taking out 7300.75. Or if they are being passive and buying pullbacks into 7190.00, for instance. Be prepared if the swing bottom at 7131.25 fails because this will shift momentum.

What to Watch

I’m watching 7190.00 on June E-mini S&P 500 futures first thing this morning. That pivot tells me whether buyers are still in control or stepping back. Hold above it and the aggressive traders are still running this market. Lose it and 7131.25 is the next stop and that is where the momentum question gets answered.

Iran headlines are going to create intraday whipsaws and the April jobs report later this week adds another layer on top of that. This market came in at record highs. Geopolitical risk and a potentially soft jobs number in the same week is not a setup that rewards chasing.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.