US stocks edged up at the opening bell on Thursday, set to add to all-time highs as investors watched for Iran’s response to a US peace proposal and combed through labor updates and fresh earnings reports.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.2%, while the S&P 500 (ES=F) steadied on the heels of record-high closes for the tech-exposed benchmarks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up 0.4%.
Iran is said to be evaluating a US proposal to end the near-10-week war, and it is expected to give its response as soon as Thursday, CNN reported. The signs of progress toward relieving the blocked Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent (BZ=F) oil futures below $100 a barrel, helping spur a rally in gold (GC=F) as inflation worries eased.
Market sentiment also got a lift from this week’s steady march of tech earnings, indicating strength in the AI trade. Shares in Arm (ARM) initially rose on the chip designer’s upbeat revenue forecast, but sank in premarket trade on concerns about a lack of chip supply.
McDonald’s (MCD) first quarter earnings beat estimates as people sought out value, pushing shares higher. Papa John’s (PZZA) missed analyst estimates on the top and bottom line, while Shake Shack (SHAK) reported a net loss.
In a busy week for labor data, Thursday brought a Challenger report on layoffs in April, which showed AI blamed as the tech sector got hit hardest. A weekly reading on jobless claims came in cooler than expected, setting the stage for the all-important monthly jobs report on Friday.
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US stock market ticks up after opening bell
US stocks edged up at the opening bell on Thursday as investors digested headlines from Iran and a slew of numbers from the corporate and economic data calendars.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained less than 0.1% to sit just above the flat line, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose roughly 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up roughly 0.1%.
Shares in Arm (ARM) initially rose on the chip designer’s upbeat revenue forecast, but fell around 2.5% after the opening bell. In the consumer sector, McDonald’s (MCD) first quarter earnings beat estimates, sending shares higher.
Labor market data from Challenger showed job cut announcements jumped 38% in April from March, with AI-driven cuts in focus. Weekly data on jobless claims showed 200,000 initial claims, above the previous week’s reading but below what economists had been expecting.
Initial jobless claims rise to 200,000, below expectations
Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, according to data released by the Department of Labor on Thursday, coming in above the previous week’s revised tally of 190,000 first-time claims.
Economists had expected initial claims to be slightly higher at 205,000 for the week, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 203,250 from the previous week’s 207,750 average.
Continuing claims, which track the unemployed population still seeking work, ticked down to 1.76 million in the week ended April 25 compared to the previous week’s revised count of roughly 1.77 million continuing claims.
Economists had been looking for an increase in continuing claims, estimating roughly 1.8 million.
Oil prices fall below $100 as US awaits Iran response to terms for ending war
Crude oil dropped further on Thursday as markets awaited Iran’s expected response to a new framework for negotiations offered by Washington, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still at a standstill.
Futures on international Brent crude (BZ=F) lost roughly 4.8% to trade near $96 per barrel after dropping under the $100 mark around 3 a.m. ET. Those on US WTI crude (CL=F) shed a steeper 5.2% to trade around $90 per barrel.
Oil prices fell by as much as 11% on Wednesday before paring losses after reports that the US and Iran were closing in on terms to end the war that has stymied global oil markets.
Washington reportedly sent a memo to Tehran that would set a framework for peace negotiations, per reporting by Bloomberg and Reuters, with the Iranian regime’s response expected in the coming days. Terms reportedly include a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by both sides.
With traffic at a standstill, the market is losing upward of 13 million barrels’ worth of oil supply per day, according to JPMorgan analysts.
Wall Street bankers on pace for big pay bumps in 2026 amid AI gold rush
As the AI boom spurs activity across almost every corner of Wall Street, bankers are coming out on top in compensation hikes.
“The big banks had a very good 2025. They’re doing at least as well, if not better, this year, and pay will be up significantly,” Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, said in an interview.
“They’re going to be pay leaders for the first time in probably a decade,” Johnson added.
About half of Wall Street workers are expected to see some increase in compensation in 2026. IPO and M&A bankers are estimated to see the biggest jumps, up as much as 20% from last year, according to first quarter compensation projections from consulting firm Johnson Associates.
Citi: 2 negative consequences if quarterly earnings reports vanish
On Tuesday, SEC Chair Paul Atkins introduced a proposal that would give public companies the option to file a new Form 10-S every six months instead of the traditional Form 10-Q every quarter.
But as Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi reports, doing away with quarterly reporting by companies could come with a few negative consequences.
“One unintended consequence could be for a greater shorter term influence of macro data and inputs,” Citi strategist Scott Chronert warned in a note on Thursday. “That is, against a backdrop of less frequent fundamental disclosures, markets may be more inclined to trade stocks relative to perceived sensitivity to economic and monetary inputs. In some cases this could create shorter term inefficiencies.”
Chronert added, “We would expect that the sell side will need an adjustment period. Here, there is risk of inefficiency where analyst models are updated less frequently. The same issue will affect us from an equity strategy perspective. Simply, full year and next twelve month estimates are at risk of getting stale, if not inaccurate, in a two vs four reporting cycle circumstance.”
In a note to clients Wednesday morning, the team at Bespoke Investment Group noted the recent rally in semis is “one of the most epic runs in history.”
… As a group, Bespoke noted that the Philly Semiconductor Index is 56% above its 200-day moving average.
For readers who aren’t technically inclined, the 200-day moving average is the average price of an asset over the last 200 trading days, or roughly 10 months, and can best be thought of as where the long-term trend for something — a stock, an ETF, an index — sits. Moves far above or below this level indicate prices that may be overheated or oversold.
Anything trading 56% of its 200-day moving average, in other words, is on a historic heater. The only other two times the group was this far above its 200-day were July 1995 and March 2000.
Read more here in the takeaway from today’s Morning Brief.
One of the S&P 500’s best earnings seasons in 20 years comes with a catch
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is not just beating Q1 earnings expectations. It’s blowing them up., writes Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre.
Here’s why that may not be all good news, from the Chart of the Day:
This earnings season is shaping up as one of the index’s strongest in 20 years, with profit growth accelerating, beat rates running hot, and analysts lifting estimates instead of cutting them.
That’s the good news.
The catch is that Wall Street may already be treating great earnings as the new floor.
Deutsche Bank is calling this “one of the best earnings seasons in 20 years,” and the charts show why. The share of S&P 500 companies beating earnings estimates is running well above normal, while quarterly profit growth is tracking near 25% — more than double the typical pace outside recessions.
… The bigger tell is what is happening to future earnings estimates.
Space analytics firm HawkEye 360 has raised $416 million in its U.S. initial public offering, the company said on Wednesday.
The Herndon, Virginia-based firm sold 16 million shares priced at $26 apiece in the IPO, giving it a valuation of roughly $2.42 billion. It had targeted a price range of $24 to $26 per share.
Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New York
After a strong April, IPO activity is expected to pick up in the coming months, with HawkEye 360 and Suja Life set to test investor demand for defense technology and consumer brands, respectively.
HawkEye will also gauge appetite for space-technology offerings, as investors await a public filing from SpaceX that could bolster confidence among peers to pursue listings and tap equity markets.
Gold maintains after US-Iran peace push drives precious metal in positive direction
Bloomberg reports:
Gold (GC=F) steadied after its biggest daily advance since late March as traders assessed the optimism of a US-Iran deal to the end the war that has sent oil prices plunging and eased inflation concerns.
Bullion traded around $4,690 an ounce, after jumping 3% on Wednesday. Falling energy prices weighed on bond yields, while the dollar fell to pre-war levels, tailwinds for gold that’s priced in the US currency and doesn’t offer interest.
Iran is evaluating a fresh proposal from the US to end the near 10-week conflict, according to a person familiar with the matter, as China added its voice to global pressure to wrap up the war.
President Donald Trump has indicated on multiple occasions throughout the conflict that a deal is near, though none has materialized. He said on social media on Wednesday that the US will end its military campaign and lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”
