Live: Can Rigetti’s Q1 Earnings Tonight Kick Off the Stock’s Next Monster Run?

That wraps up our initial coverage of Rigetti Computing’s Q1 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Check out management’s earnings call at 5 PM EST for more updates.

At first glance, Rigetti Computing posting $33.1 million in GAAP net income looks like a major turning point for the business. It wasn’t.

The profit was almost entirely driven by a $53.7 million non-cash gain from warrant liability accounting adjustments, while the company’s actual non-GAAP net loss was $14.7 million.

Meanwhile, operating loss widened to $26.0 million as R&D spending climbed 29% year over year to support chiplet scaling, fidelity improvements, and the push toward a future 1,000+ qubit system.

Rigetti still operates like a deep-tech infrastructure buildout rather than a scalable software business. Revenue is growing quickly, but the cost of advancing the technology stack is still rising even faster.

One of the more overlooked parts of Rigetti Computing earnings is where the revenue growth actually came from.

The company’s nearly 199% YoY revenue jump was driven largely by on-premises Novera hardware deployments rather than just cloud access usage. This shows Rigetti is beginning to unlock government, research, and enterprise budgets that are difficult to access through pure cloud-based quantum services alone.

Rigetti is evolving from a purely experimental quantum platform into a real hardware vendor.

The tradeoff is that hardware carries much lower gross margins than SaaS-like cloud access, which helps explain why gross margin remained just 31.3% despite the massive revenue growth.

Rigetti Computing finished Q1 with roughly $569 million in cash and no debt, giving the company substantial runway as it pushes toward larger-scale quantum systems. Rigetti still has the balance-sheet flexibility to keep investing aggressively, even as the business remains early-stage and highly unprofitable.

The company reported Q1 revenue of $4.4 million, up nearly 199% YoY, while operating loss came in at $26.0 million.

Management also announced plans for a $100 million UK investment tied to the development of a future 1,000+ qubit system, reinforcing the company’s long-term roadmap toward quantum advantage.

Rigetti Computing used its Q1 earnings report to highlight a major milestone in its quantum roadmap: the general availability launch of its Cepheus-1-108Q system.

Management said the system is now available through Rigetti QCS, Amazon Braket, Microsoft Azure Quantum, and qBraid, significantly expanding customer access to the company’s latest quantum platform.

Rigetti also claimed Cepheus-1-108Q is among the most powerful generally available gate-based quantum computers on the market today, with reported two-qubit gate fidelity reaching 99.8%.

The update matters because investors are increasingly focused on whether companies can actually commercialize these systems through real customer adoption and cloud deployment.

With Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) shares up 8.18% intraday to $20.49 and riding a 30.35% one-month surge, expectations into the after-close report are elevated.

Key Numbers to Watch

• Revenue clearing the $1.47M Q1 2025 base to validate management’s “significant YoY growth” guide.
• Confirmation that $5.7M Novera on-premises shipments hit Q1 revenue recognition.
• Cash burn against $589.83M liquidity, after FY2025 free cash flow of -$77.22M.
• Progress toward the 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity 108-qubit deployment and $8.4M C-DAC H2 timing.

Move Triggers

History favors volatility: Q3’s beat still produced a -5.08% day-of move. Watch for GAAP distortion from non-cash warrant mark-to-market charges. A revenue clear of ~$4M plus a confident roadmap reiteration would likely move shares toward the $29.74 consensus target.

With earnings expected to be released at 4:05 PM EST and the company’s earnings call at 5:00 PM EST, here is what to listen for beyond the bull/bear setup already covered.

Top 5 Analyst Questions

• How much of the $5.7M Novera backlog actually shipped in Q1?
• Is the $8.4M C-DAC 108-qubit deployment still on track for H2 2026?
• Where does median two-qubit gate fidelity stand against the 99.5% target?
• Status of DARPA QBI Stage B reconsideration?
• Commercial pipeline beyond government and research buyers?

Red Flags

• Novera slippage
• Additional dilution
• Gross margin deterioration
• Any softening of the 1,000+ qubit by end 2027 roadmap

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) reports tonight at 4:05 PM EST. Management guided for “significant first-quarter year-over-year revenue growth” against a low Q1 2025 base of $1.472 million, fueled by partial shipment of the $5.7 million Novera on-premises orders.

Watch: Novera shipment timing, the 108-qubit Cepheus deployment at 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, the $589.83 million cash pile, and burn against FY2025’s -$77.2 million free cash flow.

Shares jumped 30.35% over the past month and 8.55% today to $20.56, though still -14.49% year-to-date.

Beat trigger: revenue clearing the bar plus a reaffirmed 150-qubit 2026 timeline or DARPA QBI Stage B selection. Polymarket prices 41% odds of a US federal stake in Rigetti by year-end, a potential catalyst.

Miss trigger: another shortfall or slipped roadmap dates. Focus on operating loss, since GAAP EPS remains distorted by warrant mark-to-market swings.

Bull Case

• Management explicitly guided for significant Q1 2026 YoY revenue growth, anchored by partial shipment of $5.7M Novera orders.
• Fortress balance sheet with ~$589.83M in cash and investments funds the roadmap to a 150+ qubit system by end of 2026.
• Insiders have been net buyers, including CTO David Rivas acquiring 80,000 shares on March 10, 2026.

Bear Case

• Rigetti missed revenue consensus all four quarters of 2025, capped by a -21.68% Q4 miss.
• FY2025 operating loss hit -$84.66M with free cash flow of -$77.22M.
• Share count ballooned from 171.9M to 298.3M YoY, and the Q3 beat still triggered a -17.71% 30-day drawdown.

Rigetti Computing trades at an eye-popping 258x expected sales, so investors are looking for continued execution and positive guidance.

If revenue lands near the $4.13 million expectation and management reiterates timelines for its 108-qubit system rollout and DARPA-related progress, there could be a meaningful path for the stock to rerate toward analysts’ average price target of $29.74 from its current share price of $20.72. But another weak quarter could quickly test investor patience after the stock’s massive recent run.