In 35 Days, The Stock Market Will…

Some forecasters are more famous and some are infamous. Martin Armstrong may well fall more into the latter than the former category. He is the creator of the Economic Confidence Model and has a storied past, including battling the government.

As the narrative goes, Martin built a software that could accurately identify major market trends and turning points, in particular. Perhaps his greatest call of all time was anticipating the 1987 Wall Street Crash.

His legion of fans would attest to the accuracy of his model while his connections to those in power, including former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, are a testament to his influence on economic policy for decades.

Most recently, Armstrong made the bold claim that May 7th will be a crucial day for stock markets, and this will be especially evident in the years to come when looking in the rearview mirror. But why is the date so key and what does he forecast?

Key Points

• Martin Armstrong earned a reputation as an accurate market forecaster who relies on a proprietary Economic Confidence Model to dictate key turning points.
• On May 7th, a key turning point has been identified which is likely to influence where the market goes over the next couple of years.

May 7th Is a Key Date

Armstrong’s model is confusing to many because he doesn’t necessarily always clearly communicate which way markets are headed. And that’s true for his May 7th prediction, too. As such it’s easy to dismiss the date and move swiftly along, but it’s not as unhelpful as it may appear at first glance.

Martin has stated that volatility is due to rise this week and the potential for a correction into May 7th is high. If so, expect the market to rally broadly all the way through to Q1 2026. His caveat is that if the market reaches a high on May 7th, it will more likely be curtains for the market as it falls into Q1 2026.

It’s easy to dismiss the forecast as “it sounds like the market will go up or down” and hence is useless. But a closer examination reveals a very clear forecast.

While Armstrong doesn’t provide clarity as to where the market will head between now and May 7th, he is clear what happens thereafter will be the opposite of what happens between now and then.

So if the market rallies over the next 5 weeks or so, expect a broad pullback for a couple of years thereafter. And if it falls between now and then, expect a rally for almost two years.

Will Armstrong Be Right?

Armstrong is a polarizing figure in the world of investing. He has ardent fans and serious detractors. His skeptics argue that his models are purposely opaque and nearly impossible to discern useful information from. His supporters argue that, when the Dow was 10,000 and he made forecasts of 30,000+ on the Dow, he was proven correct, in spite of how outlandish the claims were at the time.

History has shown that Armstrong has been broadly correct on major trends and indeed key turning points like 1987. He himself will claim it’s not him but his computer algorithm/artificial intelligence that produces the forecasts, and no credit should be attributed to him. But his skeptics have legitimate gripes with numerous forecasts that failed to materialize too.

Will this forecast prove accurate? In 35 days, we’ll have a much better idea.