Why Stanley Druckenmiller Took a Swing at StubHub

Stanley Druckenmiller almost never buys newly public stocks, yet his Duquesne Family Office acquired 4.3 million shares of StubHub shortly after its September IPO.

When a macro investor with his track record breaks his own pattern, it usually signals that he sees something the rest of the market hasn’t priced in.

Key Points

• Druckenmiller sees StubHub as a dominant, data-rich marketplace positioned for long-term digital ticketing growth.

• The IPO sell-off masked a healthier business, as StubHub’s big loss was a one-time charge and earnings are expected to turn strongly positive.

• Regulatory risks remain, but the stock’s sharp drop makes its long-term upside more attractive relative to the downside.

A Big-Picture Bet on a Growing Digital Market

Live events aren’t going away, and the world is steadily shifting to digital ticketing. Even with today’s softer consumer backdrop, online ticket sales keep climbing and are projected to approach $90 billion by 2030. That slow-and-steady growth is exactly the kind of trend Druckenmiller has historically leaned into.

StubHub’s model fits the bill. The company doesn’t own ticket inventory, giving it a capital-light structure that scales as transaction volume rises. It also sits on one of the richest troves of real-time demand data in the entire entertainment industry, information competitors can’t easily replicate. From a secular standpoint, StubHub is more entrenched than many realize.

IPO Hangover Masked a Profitable Core

Druckenmiller paid an average of $16.84 per share. The stock now trades around $11.86. But the drop says more about IPO fatigue than business fundamentals.

In Q3, StubHub posted 8% revenue growth and an 11% jump in gross merchandise volume. The alarming $1.3 billion GAAP loss that spooked investors was mainly a one-time $1.4 billion stock-based compensation charge tied to going public.

Without it, StubHub would have actually been profitable in its first reported quarter. The IPO proceeds also allowed the company to retire roughly $750 million in debt, improving its financial footing immediately.

A Forward Earnings Profile That Looks Mispriced

Once the IPO-related charge clears, StubHub’s earnings picture changes dramatically. Analysts expect losses next year due only to that one-time hit, but forecasts turn positive quickly after that. Consensus calls for more than $1 per share in earnings in 2026 and roughly double that in 2027.

At Druckenmiller’s entry price, those estimates implied a valuation in the low-teens on 2026 earnings and single digits on 2027 numbers. At today’s price, the multiples look even lower. For a dominant marketplace, that’s unusually inexpensive.

The Real Wildcard Is Regulation of Ticket Resales

The biggest risk isn’t competition, it’s potential government intervention. The UK has already moved toward banning resale above face value. In the U.S., the FTC has been directed to scrutinize secondary markets more aggressively. Depending on how far regulators go, StubHub’s fee-driven model could be pressured.

Short-term consumer weakness adds another layer of uncertainty. Major festivals have reported soft demand, and Eventbrite’s steep decline over the past year shows that the entire category is feeling the pinch. But these cyclical forces don’t change StubHub’s long-term positioning.

Why Druckenmiller Likely Stepped In

Druckenmiller probably saw a combination of durable secular growth, a data-rich marketplace with high operating leverage, and a valuation temporarily distorted by accounting noise. Now that the stock trades nearly 30% below his entry point, those ingredients are even more compelling for investors who can tolerate regulatory uncertainty.

It’s not a low-risk stock, but the probability of a meaningful payoff is higher than the current share price suggests. StubHub may look messy today, but it remains one of the more intriguing early-stage public companies for investors hunting for mispriced long-term growth.