2 AM Update: Invest AL97 likely to become Rafael

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – The disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea now have the designation called Invest AL97. With that come the first Spaghetti Model plots, which move the system to the northwest over Cuba to start the week. By Wednesday it continues north, offshore of the west coast of Florida and parallel to the coast. This is close enough to bring thunderstorms into Florida Wednesday and Thursday. The majority of the models keep the storm at Tropical Storm strength (winds 39 to 73 mph). A few of the models take it to a Category 1 strength.

Late Wednesday the models have the storm as far north as the Tampa Bay area, still offshore. After that the models are in chaos. A few take it to the Big Bend area, others push it farther west toward the Louisiana coast by next weekend. As this storm continues to develop we should get more consensus in the models in the track and intensity of what is likely to become Rafael.

The track and intensity of the story are still very subject to change for now.

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