A Stock Market Crash in 2026? 3 Warning Signs to Watch.

Is the stock market going to crash in 2026? It seems like such an important question. It would be, if only we could arrive at an accurate answer. But no one really knows just what the market will do from day to day or even year to year.

Still, there are some signs we can watch for that can guide our expectations a bit. Here are three.

First, consider how the stock market has performed in recent years:

Data source: Slickcharts.com. Returns reflect reinvested dividends.

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, has risen by double-digit percentages in six of the past seven years and eight of the past 10 years. It certainly won’t be surprising if the market pulls back in 2026 — though another big gain is also possible.

A second sign is a number that technical investors often look at: the 200-day moving average price for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 was recently 6% below its high, suggesting that a decline may be coming. It’s far from guaranteed, though, and if it does happen, know that the market has usually recovered relatively quickly from such drops.

Then there’s investor sentiment. According to a Pew Research Center report, 74% of respondents surveyed in January see economic conditions in America as fair or poor. And The Motley Fool’s 2026 Investor Outlook report finds 45% of survey participants worrying that inflation will stay stubbornly high, and 37% concerned about a weakening labor market.

The fact that there’s a war with Iran and plenty of geopolitical tension between the United States and many of its allies and trading partners doesn’t help.

All this together should make it clear that a market crash could indeed happen in 2026, though, again, it might not. If you’re worried, there are some ways to brace for market volatility.