AAPL: Apple Poised For Big FY26 Breakout As iPhone 17 Demand Surges Globally

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Oct 15 – Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest iPhone 17 release is shaping up to be one of its strongest product cycles in years. Early signs show pre-orders up 5%10% year over year, while global lead times have surged 80%, a signal that demand remains robust across key markets.

With more than 315 million iPhones due for upgrades, Apple is tapping into a massive replacement wave. JPMorgan (JPM) forecasts shipments of roughly 236 million units in fiscal 2026, up 2% from last year, helping to drive mid-single-digit revenue growth and about $80 billion in iPhone sales. Evercore ISI expects over half of buyers to opt for Pro models, keeping average selling prices near record highs.

Apple’s push to diversify production into India is also paying off. The company exported nearly $7.5 billion worth of iPhones in just four months, a shift that reduces dependence on China and cushions risks from renewed U.S.-China tariff tensions. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raised its iPhone build estimates for the September quarter to 54 million units, while Wedbush and Evercore both lifted their price targets to $310 and $290, respectively.

Still, Apple faces growing regulatory pressure. The European Commission fined the company 500 million for violating the Digital Markets Act, and similar investigations in the U.K. and South America could add up to $1 billion in annual penalties. Apple and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) are reportedly negotiating to settle some of these cases.

Those head winds notwithstanding analysts are optimistic. As iPhone demand shifts, and services margins remain strong, the FY26 outlook of Apple is indicated by earnings momentum and possible doubling of share price, or AAPL stock.