AAPL Q3 2025: Analysts expect low growth, iPhone and Mac up, iPad down

We’re just a day away from the AAPL Q3 2025 earnings report, covering April to June. Apple said it expected single-digit growth, and analysts expect this to be toward the lower end of the scale.

Digging into the detail, the consensus view is that both iPhone and Mac revenue will be up year-on-year, while iPad earnings will be down …

AAPL Q3 2025 revenue expectations

Apple saw revenue grow 5% year-on-year in fiscal Q2, and said we should expect similar in Q3. Analysts are slightly more pessimistic, with Yahoo! Finance reporting a consensus view of 3.7% growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is pegged at $88.92 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 3.67%. 

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.42 per share, up by a penny over the past 30 days. The estimate indicates a 1.43% increase from the year-ago quarter’s actual.

iPhone

The iPhone accounts for almost exactly half of the company’s income, coming in at 49.1% of net sales in the previous quarter.

The company has faced tough competition from local brands in China, but a report suggested a rebound last quarter following heavy promotion and inclusion in government price subsidy programs.

Analysts expect net sales of $40.61B, which would represent 3.3% growth year-on-year.

Mac

Demand for M4 Macs has reportedly been healthy, and market intelligence firms IDC and Gartner both estimated around 9% share of the PC market, representing a slight gain.

Analysts expect this to be reflected in Q3 revenue of $7.16B, up 2.2%.

iPad

The iPad enjoyed strong growth in Q2 thanks to the launch of the new 11-inch and 13-inch iPad Air models, alongside continued strong demand for the iPad Pro. That saw 15% growth for the quarter.

However, with much of that demand satisfied, analysts expect revenue to fall back to $6.78B, which would be a decline of 5.3% year-on-year.

Services

Services continues to be the shining star – as the installed user-base grows, so too does the market for Apple’s Services products, which include AppleCare, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, Apple Card, Apple Fitness+, and Apple One.

The consensus expectation is for revenue to rise to $26.96B, up 11.3% year-on-year.

Tough questions expected on Apple Intelligence

Investors will of course be eager to hear Apple’s expectations for the following quarter. While the company long since stopped offering revenue guidance, it has recently offered a more general impression of its future expectations.

Of particular interest will be what the company has to say about the future of Apple Intelligence. Progress has so far been very slow, with many feeling the company is falling further and further behind despite launching some AI features. We can likely expect some tough (if oh-so-polite) questioning during tomorrow’s earnings call.

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Photo by Adam Śmigielski on Unsplash