Acadia’s ‘very bullish’ sales forecast restores some confidence on Wall Street
This story was originally published on BioPharma Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily BioPharma Dive newsletter.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals has proposed that its pipeline of experimental medicines could, if eventually brought to market, peak at $12 billion in annual sales.
The brain drug developer disclosed this estimate Thursday, during its first major research and development event. The company expects eight programs to be in human testing this year, and to have data from five mid- to late-stage trials between now and the end of 2027. Five of those programs could potentially reach blockbuster status, or $1 billion or more in yearly sales, according to analysts at the investment firm Mizuho Securities.
In a note to clients, Mizuho analyst Uy Ear wrote that among those programs, the “majority of value” comes from a drug code-named ACP-204. Researchers are currently conducting a couple mid-stage clinical trials to evaluate this drug as a possible treatment for the psychosis tied to Alzheimer’s disease and a related condition known as Lewy body dementia. Data from the Alzheimer’s study are slated to come next year.
Acadia said ACP-204 is “designed to build upon” one of the company’s two marketed products, Nuplazid, which has a similar chemical structure and was first approved in the U.S. a decade ago to treat Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Nuplazid accounted for nearly two-thirds of the $958 million in revenue Acadia recorded last year. But a key patent protecting the drug from generic competition is set to expire in 2030.
On Wednesday, Acadia also predicted the combined peak sales of Nuplazid and its other commercial medication, Daybue, will fall in the range of $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Approved in 2023, Daybue is used for patients with Rett syndrome, a rare, genetic disorder that impairs brain function and development.
Marc Goodman, an analyst at Leerink Partners, described that forecast as “very bullish.” Consensus on Wall Street, according to Ear, is that sales for the two products will crest around $1.3 billion.
Ear added that the “wide range” offered by Acadia is likely due to the recent uncertainty surrounding how many patients will stop taking Daybue because of its side effects. The drug’s label includes warnings for diarrhea and weight loss.
Along with ACP-204, Acadia’s pipeline includes ACP-101, a drug for another rare, genetic, neurological disease called Prader-Willi Syndrome. High-level results from a Phase 3 experiment should arrive sometime between October and December. There’s also ACP-211, for major depression; ACP-711, for essential tremor; and ACP-2591, a “next-generation” approach to addressing Rett syndrome. Each of those three programs are in early-stage testing.
|
Drug |
Stage |
Indication |
Peak sales potential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ACP-101 |
Ph. 3 |
Prader-Willi Syndrome |
~$1-2B |
|
ACP-204 |
Ph. 2 |
Alzheimer’s psychosis, Lewy body dementia psychosis |
>$2B |
|
ACP-211 |
Ph. 2 |
Major depressive disorder |
>$2B |
|
ACP-271 |
Ph. 1-ready |
Huntington’s disease, tardive dyskinesia |
~$1-2B |
|
ACP-711 |
Ph. 2 |
Essential tremor |
>$2B |
SOURCE: Table and estimates from research by Mizuho Securities analyst Uy Ear.
Additionally, Acadia has a preclinical therapy, ACP-271, that it plans to test in patients with Huntington’s disease or “tardive dyskinesia,” a condition hallmarked by uncontrolled movements and a side effect that can arise from the long-term use of some brain-stabilizing medications like antipsychotics.
Analysts reacted well to Acadia’s updates. Ear left the R&D presentation “encouraged,” while Goodman wrote how his team is now “incrementally more positive” on the company. Acadia’s stock price has been weighed down over much of the last five years, as the company hit setbacks trying to expand the use of Nuplazid into more lucrative markets.
In his note, Goodman acknowledged that investors “will probably have a ‘show me the data’ attitude regarding these new assets” as well as a “healthy skepticism” around the potential of both ACP-204 and ACP-101. “So it may take some time for pipeline value to creep into” the company’s valuation.
Should Nuplazid and Daybue ultimately achieve Acadia’s new forecast, that would make the company’s stock “attractive” even if the experimental programs don’t pan out, Goodman wrote.
“However, the real upside is that Acadia hits on an asset or two to make the name a sustainable growth story,” he added. “We are certainly willing to be patient to see this story play out.”
Acadia shares traded around $22.60 apiece late Thursday morning, essentially flat from the prior day’s close.
Recommended Reading