AI In Wine And Whiskey Investing: Smart Tool Or Sour Strategy?
Anthony Zhang | Cofounder & CEO of Vinovest.
Fine wine and whiskey have evolved from collectors’ passions into serious alternative assets, often outperforming traditional markets. The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index reports that rare whisky prices have surged by 280% over the past decade, while fine wine has climbed 146%.
Thanks to the recent AI boom, many investors are exploring how to use AI technology to navigate these lucrative yet complex markets. While AI excels in handling vast amounts of data, it cannot replace human expertise in areas like brand prestige, cultural trends and sensory evaluation. Here’s where AI works—and where it still falls short.
Where AI Works In Wine And Whiskey Investing
1. Predicting price trends
AI’s ability to analyze auction results, critic scores and market sentiment makes it valuable for price forecasting. Platforms like Liv-ex use machine learning to track fine wine appreciation, with the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 Index delivering significant returns over the past decade.
In the whiskey market, firms like Rare Whisky 101 employ AI-driven models to identify undervalued distilleries. For instance, a bottle of The Macallan 1926 recently fetched a record-breaking price of approximately $2.7 million at auction, highlighting the potential for substantial returns.
2. Risk management and diversification
AI-driven investment platforms assess risk by analyzing market fluctuations, climate conditions affecting vintages, and inventory levels. They help investors diversify portfolios, balancing classic blue-chip assets like Château Lafite Rothschild with emerging markets such as German Pinot Noir.
3. Fraud detection and authentication
Counterfeiting remains a significant issue, especially for rare bottles. AI-powered image recognition and blockchain verification assist in detecting fakes. Startups like Entrupy use AI to analyze label inconsistencies, bottle engraving and cork patterns, reducing fraud risks in high-value transactions.
Where AI Falls Short
1. Brand prestige and collector psychology
AI can’t quantify the cultural and emotional appeal behind certain brands. Take Macallan 1926 Fine & Rare—its astronomical value is driven not just by rarity but by collector sentiment and brand legacy. Similarly, Japanese whisky’s rise wasn’t just about quality but was fueled by pop culture influence and global storytelling—something AI cannot fully predict.
2. Sensory evaluation and aging potential
Wine and whiskey evolve over time, but AI can’t taste or smell. While algorithms can analyze chemical compositions, they cannot replicate a master sommelier’s or distiller’s expertise in determining how flavors will develop over decades.
3. Navigating private sales and off-market deals
Many of the rarest and most valuable bottles are traded off-market through private collectors and winery allocations—areas where AI has little influence. Human relationships and negotiation skills still play a crucial role in accessing exclusive investment opportunities.
AI + Human Expertise: The Winning Strategy
Just like the best wines contain the perfect balance of power and finesse, the best investment strategies contain a balance of both AI and human intuition.
While I predict that this balance may sway more heavily favored AI in the coming years, I don’t think the role of human expertise will ever go away in this complex, niche market.
Forbes Finance Council is an invitation-only organization for executives in successful accounting, financial planning and wealth management firms. Do I qualify?