Analyst on Tesla (TSLA) Valuation: ‘There is a Line in the Sand and Tesla Just Crossed it’
We recently published a list of Wall Street Analysts Can’t Stop Talking About These 10 AI Stocks. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stands against other stocks Wall Street analysts can’t stop talking about.
Henry Ajder, Latent Space Advisory founder, said in a latest program on CNBC that lack of fresh data remains a key challenge for the performance of AI systems after a period of “huge” developments and fast learning.
“I think data is the real problem here. We have a finite amount of data available on the internet and a limited number of sources for live, fresh data. I believe this is becoming an increasingly significant challenge, especially as legal issues surrounding how companies obtain and use data are becoming more prominent,” the analyst said.
Ajder believes there won’t be a complete “halt” to the progress in AI systems but in 2025 we are expected to see a slowdown. Answering a question about the AI’s ability to make up data, called synthetic data” to train itself, the analyst said this domain has shown promise but there are risks of synthetic data potentially corrupting the training models.
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For this article we picked 10 AI stocks currently trending based on latest news. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 99
Lee Munson, president and CIO of Portfolio Wealth Advisors, explained in a recent program on CNBC why he “hates” Tesla cars and why he recommends selling the stock:
“I hate the product, you know. My analyst, Jesus, and I went out to go see Iron Maiden in San Diego. We had to rent a Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) to check it out. Everything about that car, I hate. Every general manager, some of them are clients that run auto dealerships, you can make a lot of money doing auto dealerships, let me tell you, they all say the same thing: People are coming in and saying, “Is it morally okay if I switch back to gas?” Because people don’t want electric cars, they want a Tesla. It’s an old design. It’s up 50% since the election. I’m sorry, Elon Musk is going to make bank hanging out being a bro with Trump on SpaceX. Tesla is a car company, it’s not a tech company. When I say valuations don’t matter, there’s a line in the sand, and Tesla just crossed it. So I’m not in it.”
Looking beyond the recent spike in Tesla shares amid Donald Trump’s victory, Tesla’s fundamentals are challenged. How? Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) key robotaxi event was short on details. Notably absent was the discussion of a “more affordable” model that Musk had previously mentioned to boost confidence in Tesla’s vehicle sales growth outlook.
What about the $30,000 price tag claim?
Musk has indicated that the Cybercab will have a production cost of approximately $30,000. Operating within the robotaxi fleet is projected to cost around $0.20 per mile. With a production cost of $30,000, the retail price of the Cybercab is likely to exceed this figure. For instance, if the Cybercab is priced at $30,000 per unit, that translates to $15,000 per seat. In contrast, the average price per passenger seat in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s most affordable long-range RWD Model 3—factoring in full self-driving (FSD) licensing—is under $10,000 ($29,990 post-incentive vehicle price plus $8,000 for the FSD license, divided by four passenger seats). Regarding operational costs, while the Cybercab is expected to cost $0.20 per mile, charging the Model 3 is estimated at under $0.10 per mile, leaving a significant margin to cover maintenance and downtime.
There is a lot of hype around Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) robo taxis but many believe they will not be enough to fix the company’s long-term challenges.
What are these challenges?
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) product lineup is showing signs of stagnation, with over 95% of sales still coming from the Model 3 and Model Y. Meanwhile, competitors are rolling out more advanced models. Even Rivian’s CEO suggested Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) could be nearing market saturation for these models. According to Reuters, Tesla’s market share in Europe is slipping as legacy automakers like BMW post stronger sales. Chinese competitor BYD is also gaining ground in Europe, despite talk of tariffs.
Polen Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“The largest relative detractors during the quarter were Apple, Airbnb, and Tesla (not owned). We’ve spoken at length about our rationale for not owning Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). In short, the market seems to be pricing in a lot of positive optionality for this company in the near-to-intermediate term (and particularly a fully autonomous fleet of electric vehicles in the medium term). What exists today is an automobile manufacturer limited to the higher-income segment that is increasingly challenged to sell vehicles when interest rates are not zero. We continue to question the company’s long-term growth profile and governance.”
Overall, TSLA ranks 9th on our list of stocks Wall Street analysts can’t stop talking about. While we acknowledge the potential of TSLA, our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TSLA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.