Apple (AAPL) and Walmart (WMT) Are the 2 Top Dow Stocks to Beat the Index Through 2030

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 tend to rise and fall together over time, they often diverge over shorter periods. Last year the Dow was up 13% while the S&P rose 23%. However, during the 50-year period between 1970 and 2020, the two were nearly identical.

As tech stocks have become more prominent in the S&P, especially as artificial intelligence has driven the sector higher, its performance has exceed that of the Dow. 

Still, the DJIA is the granddaddy of market indices and remains a barometer of the health not only of the stock market, but the economy as well. Year-to-date the iconic index is doing better than its peer, though it’s down 1.3%, but over the next five years the likelihood it will rebound and grow higher remains high.

As March winds down and April looms just over the horizon, the two Dow stocks below stand out as potential winners that will outperform the index by 2030.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock’s lagging the Dow in 2025, down 13% year-to-date as growth worries nag the tech titan. Fiscal first-quarter 2025 revenue rose a modest 4% to $124 billion, even over the holiday rush, but iPhone sales, the company’s breadwinner, slipped 0.8%. With smartphones driving over half its revenue, that dip cast a shadow. Still, profits soared 10% to $2.40 per share, topping Wall Street’s $2.35 estimate, with juicy 46.9% gross margins fueling a $30 billion shareholder payout.

Services stole the show, though, climbing 14% to $26.3 billion, a fresh peak, thanks to 2.35 billion active devices worldwide. Yet, iPhone hiccups loom large: AI stumbles (a pulled news tool) and an 18% China sales drop, hit by Huawei’s rise and growing trade tensions. But there is upside pointing to Apple’s rebound. 

The iPhone 16’s AI dazzled when released last year, earning raves and sparking what Wedbush’s Dan Ives calls a 2025 to 2026 “supercycle.” Also, the $600 iPhone 16e could reignite China, especially with Beijing’s sub-$800 phone subsidies kicking in.

Mac and iPad sales, both up double digits, add extra juice. Sure, China’s tricky, but Apple’s $20 billion cash hoard and ecosystem lock-in signal resilience. By 2030, expect AAPL stock to shrug off this slump and leave the Dow in the dust. Growth is brewing, and the market is in for a surprise.

Walmart (WMT)

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) stock is also trailing the Dow in 2025, down 9% year-to-date as inflation and tariff talks rattle retail. Fourth-quarter revenue hit $180.6 billion, up 4% and edging past estimates of $180 billion, but a softer holiday outlook spooked investors. Still, profits climbed 7% to $0.66 per share, beating $0.64 per share forecasts, with 22% e-commerce growth showing the retail king still has digital muscle.

Walmart+ subscriptions surged making membership an important profit driver, while groceries, which account for 60% of sales, held firm despite inflation’s impact. Tariffs, though, loom. President Trump imposing 25% duties on Mexico next month could sting its supply chain as 20% of goods come across that border. 

Competition from Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime is obviously strong, but Walmart has shown it is surprisingly game to take on the leader. Further, the retailer is spending $9 billion on revamping its stores, a process expected to wrap up next year. It anticipates 1,000+ modernized locations that should boost foot traffic and increasing sales, especially as inflation cools to 2.8%.

Walmart possesses a $15.1 billion cash pile and its $1 billion buyback program will reward investors. The retail behemoth’s rural dominance locks in its loyal customers allowing analysts to forecast same-store sales growth over the next two years as promised Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lift spending. 

By 2030, expect Walmart’s omnichannel flex, including click-and-collect and drone delivery, to add a value edge to the technology advances. The retail remains a lean growth engine that will roll right past the Dow in the years ahead.