Apple Earnings Preview: Numbers and Themes To Watch
UPDATE—Oct. 31, 2024: This article has been updated to reflect more recent analyst estimates and share price information.
Key Takeaways
- Apple will report earnings after the market closes Thursday, the company’s first report since the release of the iPhone 16.
- The company is expected to report growing revenue and net income year-over-year.
- Analysts will be watching for late-cycle iPhone 15 shipments and early cycle iPhone 16 updates.
Apple (AAPL) will report earnings after the market closes Thursday, the company’s first report since the September release of the iPhone 16.
The world’s most valuable company—its market value is above $3.4 trillion—is expected to report revenue of $94.58 billion, up more than 5% year-over-year, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. The Street expects net income of $22.49 billion or $1.48 per share, compared to $22.96 billion or $1.46 per share a year earlier.
| Analyst Estimates for Q4 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2023 | |
| Revenue | $94.58 billion | $85.78 billion | $89.5 billion |
| Earnings Per Share | $1.48 | $1.40 | $1.46 |
| Net Income | $22.49 billion | $21.45 billion | $22.96 billion |
Key Metric: Late-Cycle iPhone 15 Shipments
Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter includes the very beginning of the iPhone 16 cycle, but shipments of iPhone 15s will go a long way toward whether the company beats expectations, analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
The firm raised its estimate for iPhones shipped in the quarter to 55 million units, up from 52.5 million units previously and above the Street consensus of 50 million. This upward revision “more than offsets” expected weakness in Mac sales, the firm said.
Business Spotlight: iPhone 16 Performance in China
The iPhone 16 outsold its predecessor in China by 20% in the three weeks following its release, according to Counterpoint Research data cited by Bloomberg.
That report supports the “China iPhone rebound thesis,” analysts at Wedbush said. The firm estimates that about 300 million iPhones globally have not been upgraded, paving the way for an “AI-driven super cycle led by iPhone 16.”
Wedbush suggested Apple could also partner with Baidu (BIDU), the dominant internet search engine company in China, to capture the “[artificial intelligence] piece of the China market.”
Apple shares are up about 18% for 2024 so far, at $227.26 in early trading Thursday. Over half of the 15 analysts covering Apple tracked by Visible Alpha hold a “buy” or equivalent rating on the stock, with a consensus price target of $240.87, about 6% above Thursday’s intraday price.