Apple's Smart Move May Save iPhone Sales–And The Stock Could Soar

Apple Inc.‘s AAPL smart decision to add another $100 billion to its U.S. manufacturing commitment is being hailed on Wall Street as a tactical move to dodge steep tariffs under President Donald Trump‘s trade regime—and possibly reignite its stock, which is still down 12% year-to-date.

The company announced the launch of its American Manufacturing Program (AMP) on Aug. 6, bringing its total planned U.S. investment to $600 billion over four years, up from $500 billion previously.

The timing was crucial: on the same day, Trump unveiled a 100% tariff on semiconductors for companies not building in the U.S. Apple, thanks to its new commitment, was officially granted an exemption.

For analysts, the message was clear—this wasn’t just a patriotic investment push, it was a calculated maneuver to shield the iPhone business from tariff headwinds that could hurt pricing, margins, and competitiveness.

Inside Apple’s $600 Billion US Expansion Plan

Apple’s American Manufacturing Program (AMP) will work to recenter its supply chain inside the U.S., in partnership with 10 domestic companies. This includes:

• Expansion of Corning’s Kentucky plant to produce U.S.-made cover glass for every iPhone and Apple Watch
• Building out an end-to-end silicon supply chain, with 19 billion chips expected to be produced in the U.S. in 2025
• Continuing construction of a server factory in Houston, supporting Apple Intelligence and Private Cloud Compute
• Growing data center capacity in North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Oregon
• Progress on a second campus in Austin, Texas

Capex is also accelerating: Apple has spent $9.5 billion year-to-date, up from $6.5 billion in the same period last year. R&D grew 11% year over year in the third fiscal quarter and is expected to rise again next quarter, much of it tied to AI investments.

Apple Could Gain Market Share: Bank of America

“It seems increasingly likely that several Apple products will be exempt from tariffs,” Bank of America’s analyst Wamsi Mohan said in a note Thursday.

He noted the competitive edge Apple could gain if its products avoid tariffs while others do not.

“We believe there is the potential for Apple gaining smartphone market share in the U.S. if competitors are exposed to tariffs while iPhones were to remain exempt.”

Mohan had previously modeled a 200bps gross margin headwind under a 20% tariff scenario. With the exemption in hand, he now sees 100–200bps of potential margin upside, which could help push Apple toward 50% gross margins over time.

He also flagged currency effects as a possible tailwind in the upcoming December quarter and raised his price objective from $240 to $250, citing increased confidence in Apple’s over $8 earnings-per-share potential in calendar 2026.

A Masterclass In Managing Uncertainty: JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee described Apple’s announcement as a strategic response to long-standing tariff risks.

“Apple and Tim Cook delivered a masterclass in managing uncertainty after months and months of overhang relative to the potential challenges the company could face from tariffs.”

He indicated that the revised and higher U.S. commitment should position Apple favorably as the 100% semiconductor tariffs go into effect.

Apple’s expanded domestic footprint helps mitigate those risks and reduces the chance of future policy exposure.

Apple Named As Exempt Company: Goldman Sachs

According to Goldman Sachs’ analyst Michael Ng, Apple’s tariff exemption is a game-changer for unit economics and relative competitiveness.

“Apple’s tariff exemption should alleviate tariff headwind concerns… the exemption could also put it at a potential cost advantage relative to smartphone, PC, and tablet competitors that do not receive an exemption”

Goldman Sachs holds a 12-month price target at $266, implying a 22% surge from current levels.

Market Reactions

Shares of Apple rose more than 3% on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s 5.1% surge and marking the stock’s strongest two-day rally since April.

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