Archer Aviation vs. Joby Aviation: Which Stock Is Going To Payoff For Shareholders

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry, poised to revolutionize urban air mobility, is heating up, with Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) and Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) emerging as leading contenders. 

Both companies aim to launch commercial air taxi services by 2026, targeting a market Morgan Stanley projects could reach $1 trillion by 2040. For shareholders, the question is which stock — Archer or Joby — offers the better payoff by 2030, balancing growth potential, execution, and risk.

Archer Aviation, valued at $4.6 billion, trades at $8.42 per share, down 14% in 2025, but up 112% over the past year. Joby Aviation, on the other hand, with a $5.1 billion market cap, trades at $6.0, down 21% year-to-date, but up 32% in the last 12 months. Both are pre-revenue, burning cash on research, development, and certification, but their strategies and progress differ, impacting their investment potential.

The case for Archer Aviation

Archer’s strength lies in its lean business model and strategic partnerships. It designs eVTOL aircraft for urban air mobility, focusing on its Midnight air taxi, which promises 100-mile ranges and 20-minute flights. Archer is partnering with legacy aerospace suppliers like Honeywell (NYSE:HON) to reduce capital costs and certification risks. Its collaboration with Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) for manufacturing support, and a $150 million investment from United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) for 100 aircraft, underscore the commercial attraction for its eVTOL aircraft. 

Archer’s dual-market approach — commercial ridesharing and defense contracts through a partnership with Anduril — diversifies its revenue potential. In 2024, Archer completed 400 test flights, aiming for Federal Aviation Administration certification by late 2025. Analysts project a $11.61 one-year price target, implying there is 39% upside in its stock. It suggests Wall Street sees a streamlined path to market for Archer Aviation.

The case for Joby Aviation

Joby Aviation, however, boasts a vertically integrated model, controlling design, manufacturing, and operations for its four-passenger eVTOL. Valued higher than Archer, Joby has raised $2 billion, including from Toyota (NYSE:TM) to aid its production. 

Joby has delivered two eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force for on-base air taxi transport testing, but has no real way to generate revenue from defense contracts yet.

Joby’s 2024 milestones include 500 test flights and a Part 135 Air Carrier Certification, a key step toward commercial operations. Its Dubai partnership, aiming for 2026 launches, positions it as a global first-mover. Joby’s aircraft also offer superior range (150 miles) and speed due to its in-house tech development. 

Analysts have a consensus $8.58 per share price target on JOBY, or 35% upside implied, but Morgan Stanley just lowered its price to $7 from $10 per share, or less than 8% upside. Joby’s $1.3 billion cash burn over the past year also raises concerns, as breakeven is not expected until 2028.

Risks abound

Financially, both face risks as pre-revenue companies. Archer’s $834 million cash reserve at the end of the fourth quarter supports operations through 2026, while Joby’s $933 million cash, equivalents, and short-term investment gives it a bit of a longer runway, though its higher burn rate and vertical integration increase costs. Regulatory delays, a risk shared by both, could see FAA approvals pushed out to 2027, impacting timelines for generating revenue.

Market dynamics favor Archer’s leaner approach. Joby’s vertical integration, while innovative, mirrors Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) business model, but it lacks precedent in the aerospace industry. Archer’s outsourcing reduces risk, as seen in its faster certification progress — some 90% of Midnight’s systems are FAA-compliant versus Joby’s 80%. Archer’s defense contracts also provide a hedge against commercial delays as it is relying heavily on ridesharing. Joby doesn’t have a similar buffer.

Valuation-wise, Archer appears more attractive. Its partnerships and cost efficiency suggest it can scale faster, capturing early market share in cities like Los Angeles, where it plans 2026 launches with United. Joby’s global ambitions are promising, but execution risks and higher costs temper its payoff potential.

The verdict

For shareholders, Archer Aviation is the better bet. Its diversified revenue streams and certification progress position it to deliver higher returns with less risk sooner. Joby’s innovation is compelling, but its costlier path and slower breakeven route make it a riskier play. 

The FAA approval process is a wildcard. Despite being accommodating so far, the regulatory body needs to be monitored ahead of initial commercial launches. Ultimately, these, along industry and conssumer demand, will determine the true winner in this high-stakes race.