As China’s trade slows, Trump’s tariffs loom, analysts urge domestic growth focus

China would need to pivot to consumption-based policies next year amid anticipated trade headwinds to support its economic growth for 2025, analysts said, after export growth narrowed in November.

Despite having the advantage of last year’s low base – which was only 0.5 per cent year-on-year – and a surge in front-loaded orders driven by tariff concerns, exports from the world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.7 per cent year on year to US$312.31 billion in November, according to customs data released on Tuesday.

“China’s overall export performance is about average. On one hand, global demand hasn’t been super strong, on the other hand, the impact of trade front-loading so far was weaker than our expectations,” said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit market research firm.

“The full effect of front-loading should be felt in December and January before Trump takes office, so expect busier-than-usual Chinese factories before the Lunar New Year.”