Big Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 earnings today: here’s what investors will watch from the Jensen Huang-led chip giant – NVDA stock forecast
Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 earnings today: Nvidia Q4 FY2026 earnings arrive with Wall Street expecting $65.7 billion in revenue and $1.53 in EPS, marking 67% revenue growth and 72% earnings growth year over year. That is extraordinary scale. It follows Q3 revenue of $57 billion and extends a streak of 12 straight earnings beats. The question is no longer whether Nvidia will deliver strong numbers. The real issue is whether growth accelerates again.
Here is the direct answer: Nvidia Q4 FY2026 earnings will determine whether the AI infrastructure supercycle is still expanding at full speed. If guidance signals revenue near or above $75 billion next quarter, NVDA stock could rally further. If guidance disappoints, volatility may return quickly.
Nvidia now sits at the center of global AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers including Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have collectively raised 2026 capital expenditure plans toward $600 billion. That figure is roughly $200 billion higher than estimates at the start of the year. Much of that spending targets AI servers and GPUs. Nvidia captures a significant portion of that demand.
Consensus forecasts revenue near $66 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.53. Data center revenue is projected to approach $60 billion, reinforcing Nvidia’s shift away from gaming dependence. Gaming revenue is expected near $4 billion, steady but no longer dominant.
Gross margins are forecast near 75%, up from 73.4% in Q3. That metric is critical. If margins hold near 75%, it confirms Nvidia maintains pricing power even as production scales. If margins decline, investors may question cost pressure or competitive intensity.
Markets expect Q1 revenue near $75 billion. If Nvidia guides above that range, analysts will likely raise full-year forecasts. Current fiscal 2027 earnings models hover near $7–$8 per share. Upward revisions could follow stronger guidance.
Options markets imply a 5–6% post-earnings swing. For a company with multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization and heavy weight in the S&P 500, that is substantial.
Data center revenue will drive Nvidia Q4 earnings
The primary engine behind Nvidia Q4 earnings is its data center segment. Analysts expect $60.2 billion in data center revenue, accounting for the vast majority of total sales.
Demand continues to come from hyperscalers including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft. These companies are racing to expand AI infrastructure, fund large language models, and scale generative AI services.
Recent developments reinforce that demand. Nvidia expanded its multiyear partnership with Meta to supply both Blackwell and Rubin AI processors, along with its Grace CPU servers. That deal alone signals that next-generation chips are already moving into deployment at scale.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh expects shipments of Blackwell Ultra to boost results. The chip carries a 20% to 30% higher average selling price (ASP) than standard Blackwell GPUs. Additionally, Nvidia is projected to ship nearly 30,000 AI racks in 2026, further lifting revenue per deployment.
The takeaway is clear: Nvidia’s growth remains tied directly to hyperscaler AI spending.
Blackwell, Rubin, and the AI chip roadmap
Earlier this year at CES in Las Vegas, Nvidia unveiled its latest AI superchip, Vera Rubin. The company positioned Rubin as a next-generation AI accelerator designed to handle increasingly complex AI workloads.
Blackwell remains central to near-term growth. However, Rubin expands Nvidia’s product stack and extends its competitive edge over rivals like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom.
Investors will listen carefully for updates on:
- Production ramp of Blackwell Ultra
- Order backlog into 2027
- Gross margin trends as ASPs rise
- AI demand visibility for 2027 and 2028
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management framed the debate clearly: Is AI in the second inning or the fifth? If growth slows by 2027, valuation pressure could follow. If AI remains early-stage, Nvidia’s multi-year revenue expansion may still surprise to the upside.
Nvidia stock performance vs. AI peers
Despite blockbuster product launches, Nvidia stock has gained just over 3% this year. By comparison:
- AMD is slightly down year to date
- Broadcom has posted a larger decline
- Intel is up nearly 25%
This disconnect between AI headlines and stock price action reflects investor caution. Markets are forward-looking. They want confirmation that explosive 2024 and 2025 growth can continue.
Nvidia shares edged up modestly in premarket trading ahead of earnings, signaling cautious optimism.
China sales and regulatory risks
Another critical piece of Nvidia Q4 earnings will be clarity on China.
The U.S. government has allowed Nvidia to resume certain chip sales into China. Reports indicate that companies such as Alibaba and Tencent received approval to purchase Nvidia’s H200 processors.
However, Chinese regulators previously encouraged domestic alternatives. Mixed signals raise questions about long-term demand stability in the region.
China historically represented a meaningful portion of Nvidia’s data center revenue. Investors want to know:
- Are shipments resuming at scale?
- Is demand sustainable?
- How will export controls shape 2026 growth?
Any clear guidance from CEO Jensen Huang could influence the stock sharply.
Gaming revenue and laptop CPU ambitions
While data centers dominate revenue, gaming remains an important segment. Analysts expect $4 billion in gaming revenue, up roughly 58% year over year.
Nvidia may also enter the laptop CPU market. If confirmed, this would position the company directly against Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm.
Although PC chips won’t match AI data center margins, they strengthen Nvidia’s ecosystem and brand loyalty among gamers. It also deepens vertical integration across GPUs, CPUs, and AI accelerators.
Is Nvidia stock still a buy?
The short answer: Nvidia’s growth remains historically strong, but sustainability matters more than short-term beats.
Revenue is expected to jump nearly 67% year over year. EPS is projected to grow more than 70%. Few mega-cap companies deliver that scale of acceleration.
However, valuation depends on how long that momentum lasts.
The upcoming GTC 2026 event could serve as a catalyst. Nvidia often unveils architectural upgrades, AI software tools, and roadmap clarity during the conference.
If Q4 earnings confirm sustained demand and GTC introduces another leap in performance efficiency, Nvidia may reinforce its dominance in AI infrastructure.
But if guidance hints at moderation in 2027 growth, the stock could face volatility.
FAQs:
1. What are Nvidia’s expected Q4 earnings and revenue numbers?
Nvidia is projected to report $65.8 billion in revenue and $1.53 earnings per share, up from $39.3 billion and $0.89 EPS a year ago. That implies roughly 67% year-over-year revenue growth and more than 70% EPS growth. The surge is driven mainly by data center demand tied to AI infrastructure. Investors are watching closely because even a slight miss on guidance could trigger volatility after such aggressive growth expectations.
2. How much is Nvidia’s data center revenue contributing to total sales?
Analysts expect $60.2 billion of the $65.8 billion total revenue to come from Nvidia’s data center segment. That means more than 90% of quarterly sales are linked to AI chips and server deployments. Hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft continue expanding AI capacity. If this segment slows, overall growth could decelerate sharply.
3. Is Nvidia stock overvalued after the AI rally?
Nvidia stock is up just about 3% year to date despite massive AI announcements. The modest gain reflects investor caution around 2027 and 2028 growth. Markets are pricing in sustained AI spending, with hyperscalers planning roughly $650 billion in AI capital expenditures in 2026. If growth extends beyond 2026, valuation concerns ease. If spending cools, multiples could compress.
4. Will Nvidia’s China chip sales impact earnings growth?
China remains a key variable after U.S. export restrictions limited advanced chip sales. Reports indicate select companies have approval to purchase Nvidia’s H200 processors. However, demand signals remain mixed. Any confirmed rebound in China shipments could materially support 2026 revenue guidance. Conversely, renewed restrictions or weak orders would weigh on forward growth expectations.