Bitcoin ETFs Face $1.17B Outflows, But Pompliano Sees BTC Rebound Ahead
The market for United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has just recorded its longest streak of withdrawals in more than four months. According to data from Farside and CoinMarketCap, these ETFs have faced outflows totaling about $1.17 billion over the past five trading days, highlighting renewed caution among institutional investors.
Despite the outflows, crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin may now be in oversold territory, suggesting an opportunity for a potential rebound as the market enters a historically stronger period.
Bitcoin ETFs on a Losing Streak
The five-day withdrawal streak marks the worst performance for spot Bitcoin ETFs since April 2025, when the asset was trading near $79,625. At that time, investor sentiment was shaken by macroeconomic uncertainty and profit-taking after Bitcoin’s earlier surge.
This latest decline comes shortly after Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,128 on August 14. Since then, Bitcoin has slipped by nearly 10%, trading at around $112,870 at the time of writing. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin is down roughly 5%.
Pompliano, speaking on CNBC, argued that this correction may not signal long-term weakness. Instead, he sees it as a temporary dip within a broader bullish cycle.
Pomp: Bitcoin is Oversold
“Right now at 112, 113,000, it is pretty oversold,” Pompliano said. He pointed to Bitcoin’s current price levels, combined with seasonal patterns and the post-halving cycle, as potential catalysts for renewed buying activity.
September and October have historically marked a shift in trading behavior, as investors return from summer holidays and trading volumes pick up. Pompliano noted that this seasonal effect could coincide with stronger demand for Bitcoin, setting the stage for a rally.
“People are in front of their screens in September, they are not in front of their screens in August,” he said, suggesting that increased activity could translate into buying pressure.
Historical Trends Point to Strong Q4
Market data supports Pompliano’s view of a potential fourth-quarter rebound. Since 2013, Bitcoin’s third quarter has typically been its weakest, with average gains of just 6.02%. By contrast, the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest, posting average returns of more than 85%.
This seasonal shift, combined with Bitcoin’s oversold signals, may help attract buyers who expect history to repeat itself. Pompliano explained that market psychology plays a big role: if enough investors believe Q4 is bullish, their collective actions can drive price momentum.
Will Bitcoin Reach $1 Million?
While optimistic about a year-end rebound, Pompliano dismissed predictions that Bitcoin could reach $1 million during this cycle. He acknowledged that Bitcoin has the potential to achieve such a milestone in the long run but said it was unlikely before 2026.
“Bitcoin will definitely go to one million at some point in the future, but I just think this cycle it is very unlikely that it is going to go to a million dollars,” Pompliano said.
His comments came shortly after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he believed Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, aligning with long-term bullish forecasts.
Macro Factors Could Fuel Demand
Beyond seasonal trends, macroeconomic developments may also influence Bitcoin’s next moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates on September 17, which could boost liquidity and risk appetite across markets.
Additionally, more treasury firms have been exploring Bitcoin allocations, raising capital specifically to increase exposure to digital assets. If these inflows materialize, they could offset recent ETF withdrawals and support Bitcoin’s price recovery.
Outlook for Investors
Bitcoin’s recent pullback reflects ongoing volatility in a post-halving environment. While ETF outflows highlight short-term caution, long-term signals remain constructive, particularly with oversold conditions and favorable seasonal trends.
Investors are now watching closely to see if September’s market reawakening leads to stronger inflows and a Q4 rally. If history holds true, Bitcoin could be setting up for a significant rebound into the end of 2025.
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