Bitcoin’s On-Chain Strength Sets Stage for Fourth-Quarter Gains, Says Cathie Wood's ARK Invest

ARK Invest says bitcoin’s fundamentals, adoption trends and macro environment are aligning to support continued strength into the final months of 2025, even as cycle dynamics signal the need for caution.

On-chain signals point to structural strength

In its latest “Bitcoin Quarterly “report for the three months ended Sept. 30, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest argues that bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain firmly intact. The firm notes that network activity, profitability levels and supply distribution all continue to reflect strong underlying demand, with long-term holders showing few signs of capitulation.

ARK points to what it calls “bullish” on-chain positioning, with the majority of coins remaining in profit and held by investors with low spending propensity. This dynamic, it says, has historically coincided with sustained bull market phases and offers a favorable foundation for price performance as the fourth quarter begins.

The firm also highlights the growing role of mid-sized investors, who have steadily added to their positions in recent months. This renewed accumulation, combined with a slowdown in large-holder selling, suggests a healthier and more organic rally structure than in previous market cycles, according to the report.

Institutional participation reaches new milestone

ARK emphasizes that institutional adoption is continuing to expand at a rapid pace. Digital asset trusts and spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds now collectively hold about 12.2% of total supply — a record share that, in ARK’s view, underscores bitcoin’s deepening integration into traditional capital markets.

The firm argues that this rising level of institutional participation provides a more stable demand base and increases the likelihood that bitcoin will be treated as a strategic portfolio allocation rather than a purely speculative asset. It also notes that regulated investment vehicles continue to absorb new supply, which could tighten available float and magnify the price impact of fresh inflows in the months ahead.

Macro environment may fuel further demand

Beyond on-chain and institutional metrics, ARK points to macroeconomic factors that could boost demand for bitcoin as 2025 draws to a close. Inflation pressures, according to the firm, remain contained, while signs of labor market weakness are prompting a gradual shift in Federal Reserve policy.

ARK believes that this pivot — alongside government moves toward deregulation and tax reductions — could pave the way for “productivity-led growth,” an environment that has historically benefited risk assets, including bitcoin. This supportive backdrop, it argues, could reinforce the bullish signals already visible in on-chain data and market positioning.

Outlook: bullish momentum with a cycle-driven caveat

While the overall picture is positive, ARK cautions that timing remains an important variable. The firm warns that “cycle timing suggests caution,” as supply distribution and historical precedent point to the possibility of increased volatility later in 2025.

That does not undermine the bullish thesis, but it suggests that price action may include periods of consolidation or sharper swings as the market digests its recent gains.

In its summary of bitcoin’s outlook, ARK concludes that fundamentals and adoption remain robust, institutional ownership is growing and macro conditions are improving.

These forces, it says, create a powerful setup for potential upside — even if investors should remain alert to how market cycles may shape the next phase of the rally.