Can Nvidia Break Through $200 Before Q3 Earnings?
TLDR
- Nvidia stock climbed 4.3% to $190.08 on October 27 driven by continued investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure.
- Top investor Keithen Drury remains bullish but warns that future growth potential may already be priced into current levels.
- The stock is trading above key moving averages but faces immediate resistance near the $195-$200 all-time high zone.
- Q3 earnings on November 19 will be critical as Wall Street expects another strong report with 54% year-over-year revenue growth.
- Technical indicators show RSI in overbought territory, suggesting possible consolidation before the next move higher.
Nvidia stock closed at $190.08 on October 27, marking a 4.3% gain in 24 hours. The move reflects ongoing investor appetite for AI-related equities.
The chipmaker continues to dominate GPU innovation. Its infrastructure leadership in artificial intelligence keeps drawing capital into the stock.
From a technical perspective, the short-term trend remains constructive. Nvidia is trading comfortably above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
The 50-day moving average sits near $170. The 200-day moving average has climbed toward the $130 range.
These levels now function as dynamic support zones. Both moving averages are sloping upward, indicating strong underlying momentum.
Resistance Levels Come Into Focus
Immediate resistance appears near the all-time high zone of $195 to $200. A convincing breakout above this level could open the door to $210-$220.
On the downside, initial support is likely near $175. This level served as a consolidation point during September.
Further support exists near the 50-day moving average at $170. Technical indicators like RSI have moved into overbought territory.
This suggests caution for short-term traders. The extended rally increases the probability of a pullback or consolidation phase.
Nvidia is in a clear uptrend. But it’s approaching key resistance where profit-taking could emerge unless a fresh catalyst drives another breakout.
Top Investor Issues Cautious Assessment
A recent analysis highlights diverging opinions around Nvidia’s valuation. Keithen Drury, a top-ranked investor, maintains a bullish outlook but acknowledges risks.
Drury states that Nvidia “could have massive growth ahead” if the AI trend continues. However, he warns that much of that future potential may already be priced in.
He also highlights concentration risk in Nvidia’s customer base. A slowdown in spending by major players like Microsoft or Amazon could affect growth materially.
One concern is the circular revenue loop created by early AI adopters. Major tech firms are spending billions on Nvidia GPUs to build models.
They’re still searching for real-world monetization later. If actual AI-driven revenue generation lags behind infrastructure spend, capex budgets could normalize.
This would slow Nvidia’s growth trajectory. Still, most Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the stock.
HSBC recently raised its price target to $275. The firm cites ongoing strength in data center demand.
Expectations are that Nvidia will retain 80-90% market share in AI compute chips through at least 2025. Other firms like Morningstar estimate Nvidia’s fair value at around $170.
This signals the stock is slightly overvalued in the near term. The debate continues over whether current prices reflect future potential or excessive optimism.
Q3 Earnings Will Set Direction
In a base-case scenario, Nvidia could rise toward the $210-$220 range. This assumes stable macro conditions and continued AI investment from hyperscalers.
A sustained breakout above $200 would likely trigger new inflows. Strong Q3 earnings in November could support price target upgrades from analysts.
The broader tech sector’s bullish sentiment could amplify Nvidia’s momentum. A year-end rally in AI infrastructure names would provide additional tailwind.
In a bear-case scenario, earnings guidance disappointments could trigger a pullback. A move to the $160-$170 range would represent a 10-15% correction.
This would still keep the long-term bullish trend intact. Valuation compression and profit-taking from institutional holders could intensify selling pressure.
Macro headwinds resurfacing would compound the problem. The company’s new partnership with Uber highlights its expanding role as a full-stack AI systems provider.
The deal boosts investor confidence. It strengthens Nvidia’s position within the enterprise AI ecosystem beyond just chip manufacturing.
Wall Street expects the company to report approximately $54.6 billion in revenue for Q3. Adjusted earnings per share are projected at $1.24.
Nvidia itself has guided to about $54 billion in quarterly revenue. This represents roughly 54% year-over-year growth.