Can Nvidia Stock Really Gain 89% in 2026?

• Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chip line is in full production following strong Blackwell demand.

• Chinese demand for Nvidia chips reportedly remains quite high.

• The stock trades at 46.4x trailing P/E with a Wall Street high target of $352 (89% upside).

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been really making headlines in recent weeks. Yet, the stock still seems to be stuck in the mud, with a consolidation channel hovering around $180-190 per share. Whether we’re talking about the impressive showing at CES 2026, the potential of Vera Rubin (the next generation line of chips), or the year-end deal with Groq to help solidify the GPU king’s position in the AI inference boom, there are a lot of things to look forward to in 2026.

Of course, there are growing doubts about the higher-multiple AI names, especially those that have gained triple-digit percentage points in the past few years.

Demand for the latest and greatest Nvidia chips could stay red-hot through the year. And with Chinese demand reportedly “quite high,” there certainly is the means for shares of Nvidia to climb even higher. Though the $5 trillion market cap mark isn’t all too far off, I do think that, despite the potential catalysts, Nvidia stock will be a more modest gainer compared to prior years.

Just because the best days are seemingly behind the stock doesn’t mean Nvidia shares can’t have another market-beating year like 2025, when shares climbed just north of 30%. Of course, that’s a weak result for Nvidia shareholders who’ve been treated to multi-bagger gains in previous years.

Nonetheless, it’s still a solid result, especially for a company the size of Nvidia. And while the $4.6 trillion market cap may be seen by some as a cap on forward-looking returns, I do think that its size might be an advantage as well, especially as the GPU juggernaut leverages its own AI powers to drive year-over-year performance and efficiency gains that become difficult to keep up with.

With the Wall Street-high price of $352.00 (currently held by Evercore ISI) per share, entailing a 89% rise from today’s close, questions linger as to whether such a pick-up in performance is realistic, especially given some of the AI leaders, including Nvidia and some of the Magnificent Seven names, have run into a bit of resistance (or a bit of slowed momentum) in the fourth quarter of 2025.

With Blackwell demand picking up traction and plenty of promise to be had in Vera Rubin, which is in “full production,” it certainly feels like demand for the next generation could have the potential to be off the charts as well. Undoubtedly, it’s quite impressive how the company has been able to keep the big performance gains coming. However, broad enterprise adoption and demand need to stay hot if the next round of chips is going to sell in a manner that helps Nvidia stock experience a big leg higher.

While I wouldn’t go as far as to view Nvidia as a “top pick” in the big-tech scene, especially as Michael Burry stays bearish on the name as well as the entire AI trade, I do think the risk/reward is looking quite good going into 2026. There are a lot of catalysts ahead, and some spectacular quarters might be enough to help shares climb that wall of worry focused on the AI names.

Until AI demand starts to fall off, I’m more inclined to go with Jensen Huang and Nvidia rather than Michael Burry. Indeed, Nvidia and the AI trade will eventually suffer a steep drop, but there could be more gain to be had until then, and for that reason, going short the stock seems to be incredibly risky as investors ponder the GPU titan’s next move.

Though I could be wrong, I think the next leg could be higher when you consider how much better Vera Rubin is over Blackwell. Either way, I think the Street-high target is entirely realistic, but there are sure to be bumps on the road higher as growth stacks up against a seemingly high multiple of 46.4 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E), which is on the high side for a Mag Seven stock.

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