Can Trump’s new trade czar win a war with China?

As a social conservative, he belongs to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and is firmly in the MAGA camp, Greer has repeatedly said political, not economic, imperatives should drive trade policy.

Greer also sees China as a “generational challenge” to the US and has advocated for a strategic decoupling from the country. In May, Greer provided a road map for the policies the new administration might pursue, including action to prevent Chinese companies from relocating to other countries to dodge US tariffs.

“There is no silver bullet, and in some cases the effort to pursue strategic decoupling from China will cause short-term pain,” he told the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“However, the cost of doing nothing or underestimating the threat posed by China is far greater.”

Like Trump, Greer believes tariffs are a key way to reduce America’s trade deficits with trading partners like China, Mexico and Canada.

But Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said fixating on reducing deficits was misplaced, given that both trading partners still benefit economically from free trade arrangements.

“Greer buys into the same balance-of-trade fallacy that Trump and Lighthizer believe in, and that’s not a good thing for the US or its trading partners, including Australia,” said Young, whose think tank wrote a trade chapter for Project 2025, the controversial, hardline blueprint for a Trump presidency.

“He will have very little patience for those who show no backbone in dealing with China.”

— David Boling, director of Japan and Asian trade at Eurasia Group consultancy

Young also doubts whether the real aim of Trump’s tariffs – to force Beijing to halt huge government subsidies to its companies to stimulate production – will work.

“All four rounds of China tariffs failed in Trump’s first term. China did not pass any reforms, they just passed their own retaliatory measures.”

Cooperative diplomat

Although many fear Greer will take a fast, aggressive approach on tariffs, some are hopeful for a slower, steadier and more cooperative strategy. They point to the fact that Greer is an eloquent, French-speaking global trade expert.

Greer, who has lived in Paris, has singled out Western cooperation in slapping sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Could the West also come together to take action against China – if allies agreed Beijing “is a threat to liberal values and democracy”? Greer asked in a speech accepting the prestigious Sciences Po award in Paris.

Hervé Jouanjean, a former deputy secretary general of the European Commission, has worked with Greer in the past and likes his diplomatic approach.

“He is a sharp, professional and to the point colleague. He is also a nice person, very rigorous, and well known by the EU Commission people,” Jouanjean told AFR Weekend.

“At least he knows some of Europe and this may help to communicate even if the policy might be a bit shaky in the months to come.”

David Boling, director of Japan and Asian trade at Eurasia Group consultancy and a former Greer colleague at the USTR office, said the world would likely see both Greers – the Trump loyalist and the diplomat seeking to engage other countries in common goals.

“On China, he will work with trading partners who take a clear-eyed view of China’s unfair trading practices. But he will have very little patience for those who show no backbone in dealing with China,” Boling told the Financial Review.

Most importantly, Greer will keep things calm.

“During Trump 1.0’s storm of tariffs, Jamieson was a steady hand at the helm as USTR chief of staff. Amidst the chaos, he stayed focused on the president’s agenda,” Boling said.