Cathie Wood warns oil could plunge 50% amid Hormuz crisis
Oil markets have been on a roller coaster since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war.
Fears of a supply shock initially sent prices soaring above $100 per barrel before political signals quickly reversed the trend.
Now, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood believes there is a longer-term collapse in oil prices coming in.
Related: Mysterious trader shorts oil amid Strait of Hormuz crisis
Iran conflict rattles global energy markets
The war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has rapidly reshaped the global oil outlook.
At the height of tensions earlier this week, crude oil prices, particularly WTI crude oil, surged to nearly $120 per barrel. This was almost over 50% jump since the beginning of the war. Before the war, WTI crude was trading around $78–$80 per barrel as of Feb. 26.
Concerns have increased about the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Iran has officially announced a blockage of the passage, threatening to attack any tanker that attempts to pass through it.
As per Greenpeace, currently 68 loaded oil tankers are stuck in the Strait carrying about 16 billion litres of oil. This is an amount equivalent to Greece’s annual crude oil consumption.
Another point of concern is the attacks on oil facilities across the Gulf. So far, Saudi Aramco facility is Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates’ Ruwais Refinery, and Bahrain’s Bapco Energies refinery complex have been attacked, causing major damage to oil reserves and civilian injuries.
However, markets quickly shifted direction after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war was “pretty much over.”
Crude prices fell sharply following the remarks.
At press time on March 11, WTI crude was trading around $86 per barrel, while Brent crude hovered near $91, both still significantly higher than before the conflict began.
More on U.S.-Iran War:
Cathie Wood sees geopolitical shift inside Iran
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, believes the conflict could have broader geopolitical implications inside Iran itself.
In a video posted by ARK Invest on X on March 10, Wood said Iran’s military activity has already weakened considerably.
“What observers are observing is that Iran firing of missiles and sending out drones has dropped by about 90%,” she said.
Wood argues that Iran’s large population of young, well-educated citizens may eventually push for political change.
She described the country as a “coiled spring,” suggesting that younger generations have long been waiting for greater freedom and opportunities to participate in global innovation and technology.
“You’ve got a coiled spring in terms of a population, just really wanting to join this very exciting world, especially the world of technology and innovation.”
If such a change occurs, Wood believes it could reshape the Middle East’s economic future.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are already investing heavily in technology and innovation as they attempt to diversify away from oil dependence.
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Oil could drop to $50 despite short-term war spikes
Despite the current geopolitical tensions pushing prices higher, Wood believes oil could fall dramatically over the longer term.
Her argument centers on the rapid growth of electric vehicles and autonomous mobility, which she says will significantly reduce global demand for oil.
“They [Middle Eastern nations] know that oil prices are going down as autonomous mobility takes us into the electric vehicle realm. Electric vehicles will become less expensive,” Wood said.
She added that the shift could ultimately push oil prices much lower.
Currently hovering around $90 per barrel, Wood said,
“We could see it going down to the low $50 per barrel…below $50 per barrel and perhaps much lower over the next 5 to 10 years.”
That would represent roughly a 50% drop from current levels.
For oil-producing nations in the Middle East, the transition may already be underway.
“Middle East, which has the largest oil reserves, knows this. They’ve been diversifying into technology-based disruptive innovation, and becoming a very interesting region from that point.”
Even as war disrupts energy markets today, Wood argues the bigger story lies in how technological change could permanently reshape demand for fossil fuels.
In that sense, the current crisis may only be a short-term shock in a much longer transformation of the global energy system.
Related: Iran’s Hormuz shutdown puts major economies at risk
Why crypto needs to pay attention to oil prices
Oil prices can have indirect yet important ways of affecting or benefiting crypto.
Oil prices influence global inflation and monetary policy, which in turn affect crypto markets. When oil prices surge, inflation often rises because energy is a major input across industries.
Higher inflation can push central banks to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates, which typically reduces liquidity in financial markets and can put pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Oil market volatility often reflects broader economic uncertainty. During such periods, crypto markets can either benefit from increased demand for decentralized assets or decline if investors move into traditional safe assets and cash.
On Feb. 28, right after the war was launched on Iran, 153,237 traders were liquidated within 24 hours, with liquidation totaling $517.91 million. However, the forced selling was relatively contained.
In fact, on March 5, Bitcoin (BTC) crossed the $70,000 mark for the first time in almost a month and reached as far as $73,669 before dropping back to below $70,000.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $69,308 after a drop of 1.6% overnight. Ethereum (ETH) was down 1.5% and trading near $2,023, while Solana (SOL) dropped by 1.6% overnight to trade near $85.
Meanwhile, gold, which is traditionally considered a safe haven during periods of crises, initially climbed to $5,392.77 per ounce, the highest level in over a month. But it could not sustain the price tag. At press time, it was trading around $5,177.35, having dropped by 1.12% in the past 24 hours.
Related: Oil rally on Iran tensions deepens Bitcoin traders’ woes
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Mar 11, 2026, where it first appeared in the Economy section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.