Charting the Global Economy: Fed Reins in Rate-Cut Expectations

(Bloomberg) — Central bankers in North America’s two largest economies lowered borrowing costs this week, though yields on government debt climbed after the heads of US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada damped expectations for further reductions by year-end.

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The European Central Bank kept borrowing costs unchanged for a third straight meeting, with inflation in check and the economy expanding. The Bank of Japan also left interest rates on hold, though two policymakers dissented in favor of an increase.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US & Canada

The Fed said it would stop shrinking its portfolio of assets beginning Dec. 1, closing the book on a process that began in 2022. Jerome Powell pointed to signs of more significant tightening in money market conditions over the last three weeks as a sign that it was time to end its three-year effort. Meanwhile, after lowering rates a quarter point, the Fed chair issued a blunt warning that investors need to temper expectations for a December cut.

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates as it sees damage from US tariffs persisting, but signaled borrowing costs are at the right place as long as the economy grows roughly in line with its forecasts. The central bank pushed back on expectations of further easing, saying it sees the policy rate “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of adjustment.”

There’s no official read on how fast the US economy grew last quarter, due to the government shutdown. But almost everyone reckons it was a healthy pace — and that’s largely thanks to AI. The technology has emerged as a crucial engine of growth, at a time when hiring is slow and traditional drivers like housing have stalled. Business investment in equipment and software is soaring.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford annoyed President Donald Trump with a 60-second television ad that used the words of the late Republican icon Ronald Reagan to criticize tariffs. But the Canadian politician made it clear that Trump has gotten under his skin, too, with threats to crush Canada’s auto industry, a crucial part of the economy in his province.

Europe

Euro-area inflation eased slightly but stayed above 2%, backing the European Central Bank’s decision to keep borrowing costs where they are. The figures out Friday follow the ECB’s decision to hold interest rates at 2%. President Christine Lagarde said Thursday that the assessment of the inflation outlook was broadly unchanged, though it remained more uncertain than usual.

The euro-area economy expanded more than anticipated, displaying resilience to higher US tariffs with France recording its strongest growth in over two years. Third-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.2% from the previous three months, up from 0.1% in the second, Eurostat said. France was the main reason behind the positive surprise. Germany, the region’s largest economy, joined Italy in stagnation.

German business confidence improved to its highest level since 2022 at the start of the fourth quarter, bolstering hopes that Europe’s largest economy is finally emerging from two years of contraction.

Asia

China pledged to “significantly” boost the share of consumption in its economy over the next five years while keeping tech and manufacturing as the top priorities, in an effort to become less reliant on exports after a steep escalation of trade tensions in 2025. The Communist Party made the pledge Tuesday in a detailed document that was discussed at its fourth plenum held last week in Beijing.

US President Donald Trump came to Southeast Asia wielding trade deals his office hailed as “historic.” Trump unveiled trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, as well as the frameworks for deals with Thailand and Vietnam. The pacts give Trump some clear wins, such as the removal of many tariff and non-tariff barriers on US exports into those countries and pledges to spend billions of dollars on American goods.

Emerging Markets

The devastation from Hurricane Melissa came into focus after the record-setting storm moved past Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba with at least 33 deaths and almost $8 billion of damage in its wake. Across the Caribbean, the storm’s powerful winds have torn apart homes and buildings, blocked roads, trapped people on roofs and knocked out electricity.

Dependence on the US is rapidly pushing Mexico toward a half-trillion-dollar crossroads. Strike the right mix and the economy could grow by 2.2% a year through 2030. Expand the government’s control over industry and get drawn into a trade war with the US, and a much less favorable outcome is likely: five years of stagnation marked by zero growth.

Russian consumers’ gold purchases are set to equal the state reserves of Spain or Austria after the metal has become one of the nation’s most popular savings options during the past four years, according to a study. Retail purchases of gold in bars, coins, and jewelry are expected to reach 62.2 tons (almost 2 million troy ounces) this year, according to Hong Kong-based Al Banyan Tree Research.

World

In addition to central bank decisions by the Fed, BOC, ECB and BOJ, officials in Pakistan, Chile, Malawi, and Colombia left rates unchanged. Botswana nearly doubled its benchmark rate.

Copper hit a record in London as an easing in US-China tensions provided a fresh catalyst to a scorching rally built on mine-supply setbacks and tariff-driven trade dislocations. Year-to-date, the metal that’s an industrial staple and a proxy for global growth is up more than a quarter, and is on course for its best year since 2017.

–With assistance from Nojoud Al Mallees, Andrey Biryukov, Mark Burton, Enda Curran, Derek Decloet, Alexandra Harris, Philip J. Heijmans, Felipe Hernandez (Economist), Erik Hertzberg, William Horobin, Mary Hui, Claire Jiao, Phil Kuntz, Annie Lee, John Liu, Yujing Liu, Jonnelle Marte, Mark Niquette, Lauren Rosenthal, Josh Saul, Zoe Schneeweiss, Mark Schroers, Melissa Shin, Alex Vasquez, Alexander Weber and Jimena Zuniga (Analyst).

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