China's Trade War Narrative Puts Trump on Back Foot

Beijing is “evaluating” an offer by Washington to initiate trade talks, China’s Commerce Ministry said Friday.

Outwardly at least, President Donald Trump continues to take a hard-line stance on China with tariffs of 145 percent and higher, even after easing off earlier trade offensives against other partners. China, which has vowed to “fight to the end,” has responded with its own steep tariff hike and a range of other countermeasures.

Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment.

Why It Matters

A World Trade Organization estimate suggests bilateral trade between the United States and China, its third-largest trading partner, could shrink by as much as 80 percent.

This would deal a heavy blow to China’s export-driven economy, already fragile amid a property sector slump and sluggish consumer demand. In the U.S., prices on a wide range of goods containing Chinese components are expected to rise, as is the risk of recession.

What To Know

“The Chinese side has noted that the U.S. high-level has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue,” a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry told reporters Friday.

“At the same time, the U.S. side has recently taken the initiative to convey information to the Chinese side through relevant parties on several occasions,” they added.

The official said Beijing is “assessing” the feasibility of talks but warned that “coercion and blackmail will not work on China” and demanded that the U.S., the side that “unilaterally initiated” the trade war, lift its tariffs.

The statement appeared to fit Beijing’s new narrative that its American rival is more eager to negotiate an end to the trade war.

The U.S. has contacted China through various channels to propose talks, according to a Wednesday report by the Chinese state-affiliated social media account Yuyuan Tantian, citing Chinese economist Tan Zhu.

Tan said the Trump administration’s frequent messages on negotiations signaled Washington’s “eagerness,” adding that while China did not need to rush into talks without prior U.S. concessions, it could afford to “observe” to draw out Washington’s true intentions.

In an interview with Time magazine last week, Trump said he would not contact Chinese President Xi Jinping directly, but claimed the Chinese leader had called him, without offering further details.

The president has cited the U.S.’s yawning trade deficit with China, “unfair” trade practices, and Beijing’s role in the fentanyl crisis as justification for the tariffs.

What People Are Saying

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the press Wednesday: “We’re not going to talk about who’s talking to whom, but I think that over time we will see that the Chinese tariffs are unsustainable for China…Remember that we are the deficit country. They sell almost five times more goods to us than we sell to them, so the onus will be on them to take off these tariffs.”

Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, told Agence France Presse: “China is certainly willing [to negotiate] and so is evaluating and observing the US side’s sincerity—is it all just bluff and bluster…or is it actually something real that could yield plans for serious talks?”

What Happens Next

It remains unclear which country will blink first. However, Beijing has already taken some steps to soften the trade war on some Chinese industries by drawing up a white list of U.S. imports, such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and aircraft parts, to be exempt from its 125 percent blanket tariff.

The International Monetary Fund last week cut its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7 percent to 1.8 percent, and China’s from 4.6 percent to 4 percent, which would fall below Beijing’s 5 percent target.

The IMF also raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession this year to 40 percent, up from 25 percent in October.