Daily Morning Report October 12, 2026 (Mon) | US Interest Rates, Middle East Situation, AI Investment, Turkish Lira｜eternal_bank
1. Overview and Market Points
October 12 (Mon) is the ‘Sports Day’ holiday, and the Tokyo Stock Market is closed. From the weekend into the start of the week, market attention is focused on attacks on major airports in Saudi Arabia, ceasefire speculation regarding energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine, and US price indicators and major bank earnings to be announced this week.
In the US stock market over the weekend, the selling pressure that had spread mid-week due to concerns over the monetization of AI-related companies subsided, and all three major indices rose.
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NY Dow: $51,654.95 (+423.31, +0.82% from the previous day)
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S&P 500: 7,811.54 (+46.18 points, +0.59% from the previous day)
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NASDAQ Composite Index: 27,366.17 (+172.83 points, +0.64% from the previous day)
The three major indices also rose on a weekly basis. While expectations for AI-related investment remain strong, the market is also becoming conscious of whether the expansion of capital expenditure will lead to future profits. Caution is also required regarding the possibility of a shift from a market that buys AI-related stocks across the board to one that selects based on performance and profitability.
Regarding companies, it was reported that SpaceX signed a contract to acquire low-frequency spectrum in the US for approximately $8 billion. Additionally, for Lumentum, which handles optical communication components for AI servers, expanding product supply capacity has become a challenge against a backdrop of strong demand. These are factors indicating investment demand for AI and communication infrastructure, but they do not guarantee that the stock prices of individual companies will continue to rise.
In the bond market, the US 10-year Treasury yield remained at a high level around 5.24-5.26%. In the University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer survey, the one-year expected inflation rate was 4.7%, up from 4.6% the previous month. The Consumer Sentiment Index also fell to 46.3 from 48.1 the previous month. The combination of weakening business sentiment and rising expected inflation requires caution when considering monetary policy.
The Japanese 10-year government bond yield was approximately 3.02% as of October 9. Assuming the US 10-year Treasury yield is 5.24-5.26%, the Japan-US 10-year interest rate differential is approximately 2.22-2.24 points. However, the direction of exchange rates is not determined solely by the difference in long-term interest rates.
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar-yen ended weekend trading in the low 158 yen range on October 9. While high US long-term interest rates act as a support factor for the dollar, the Japanese authorities’ sense of caution regarding the progress of yen depreciation is also being noted. With the Tokyo market closed today, we should also be wary of sudden price movements due to lower liquidity.
In the energy market, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was attacked on October 10, and Saudi authorities announced 12 deaths and over 300 injuries. Attacks were also reported at the same airport on the 11th, with one more person reported dead and 11 injured. Projectiles were also reported to have fallen near King Fahd International Airport in Dammam. The deterioration of the situation in the Middle East could affect oil supply and air transport.
US President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an ‘energy ceasefire’ to stop attacks on energy-related facilities. However, the Ukrainian side is seeking confirmation of the details, and it is too early to judge that the cessation of attacks has been confirmed and implemented by both sides.
The settlement price for crude oil futures on October 9 was $104.72 per barrel for Brent and $91.85 for WTI. The market is fluctuating at the start of the week due to ceasefire speculation and other factors, so it is important not to confuse the weekend settlement price with the trading price at the start of the week.
Although the Tokyo market is closed today, position adjustments in overseas markets in response to price indicators and geopolitical news may continue.
2. Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, and Macroeconomic Trends
Dollar-Yen: The battle in the 158 yen range and intervention vigilance
The dollar-yen fell to around 157.76 yen on October 9, then rebounded to the 158.4 yen range, ending the week in the low 158 yen range. There is a slight difference in the closing price depending on the market data provider, but the general trend of the low 158 yen range remains unchanged.
Factors supporting the dollar include the high level of US long-term interest rates and the Japan-US interest rate differential. On the other hand, if the yen’s depreciation progresses further, the sense of caution regarding verbal or actual intervention by Japanese authorities may intensify.
Against the backdrop of France’s fiscal and political situation, the country’s long-term government bond yield temporarily rose to around 4.9%, increasing caution regarding the European bond market. However, the impact of movements in the European bond market on the dollar-yen must be judged in conjunction with other factors such as US interest rates and dollar demand.
One should avoid the simplistic view that a large interest rate differential between Japan and the US will inevitably lead to a stronger dollar. It is important to comprehensively assess real demand flows, investor positioning, policy responses, and risk-aversion movements.
[Assumed Range (Personal View)]
Since the Tokyo market is closed today, there is a possibility of temporary price spikes due to thin trading. While my base scenario assumes movement centered around the low 158 yen range, I intend to observe price action during overseas hours rather than assuming a breakout of the range.
US Price Indicators: The Most Important Focus This Week
In the preliminary October survey from the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 46.3, and the one-year expected inflation rate rose to 4.7%. The five-year expected inflation rate also rose to 3.5%.
The simultaneous occurrence of weak consumer sentiment and rising expected inflation indicates a situation that requires caution regarding both the economy and prices.
This week, the US will release its CPI and PPI data. If the inflation rate exceeds market expectations, it could lead to long-term interest rates remaining high and a correction in the stock market. Conversely, if a slowdown in inflation is confirmed, it could provide support for the stock market.
This Week’s US Economic Calendar
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October 13 (Tue): Major US financial institution earnings begin in earnest
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October 14 (Wed): US September CPI
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October 15 (Thu): US September PPI
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October 16 (Fri): US September Import/Export Price Index
CPI is on October 14, and PPI is on October 15. Both are scheduled for release at 8:30 AM US Eastern Time, which corresponds to 9:30 PM Japan Standard Time. The release dates and times are based on the official calendar of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3. [Important] Middle East Situation and the Turkish Lira
Middle East Situation: Impact on Oil Prices and Inflation
The attack on Riyadh Airport in Saudi Arabia has had a significant impact on civil aviation and regional security. Attacks were reported again the following day, and projectiles were also reported to have fallen near the airport in Dammam.
In the oil market, in addition to the Middle East situation, speculation regarding a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine concerning energy facilities is also a factor. However, it has not been confirmed whether a ceasefire will actually be implemented, and one cannot conclude that supply risks have been resolved based solely on news headlines.
If oil prices remain high, it could affect the trade balance and prices in energy-importing countries. Since Turkey is also highly dependent on energy imports, a prolonged period of high oil prices could be a burden on both its current account and inflation.
Turkish Lira/Yen: High interest rates alone cannot protect you
The Turkish Lira/Yen is trading around 3.208 yen based on the provided market data. While 3.20 yen is a psychological milestone, it is not a price level that is guaranteed to be maintained.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) held its policy meeting on September 10, keeping the one-week repo rate at 37.00%, the overnight lending rate at 40.00%, and the overnight borrowing rate at 35.50%. While high policy rates support interest income from holding the lira, they do not guarantee the exchange rate itself.
The Turkish Lira/Yen is influenced by both the Dollar/Yen and the Dollar/Turkish Lira pairs. If the Dollar/Yen rises, it may support the Lira/Yen, but if the Turkish Lira itself falls against the dollar, that effect is offset. Attention must also be paid to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices and changes in foreign currency demand.
Buying swap points vary depending on the FX company, account, and daily application conditions. Even if using a level of 24-25 yen per 10,000 currency units, it is necessary to check the latest values applied to your actual account.
【Assumed Range (Personal View)】
It is important not to expand positions solely based on high interest rates, but to manage unrealized losses from exchange rate fluctuations, required margin, and changes in swap income together. I would prioritize operations that keep effective leverage low and ensure you do not exit the market during sudden price swings.
4. Stock Market and Notable Corporate Trends
US Stocks: Rebound and Selection in AI Investment
In the US stock market on October 9, the NY Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite all rose. The three major indices were also positive on a weekly basis, confirming the resilience of the stock market.
Among AI-related companies, while demand for data centers and communication equipment continues to expand, whether they can secure profits commensurate with investment amounts remains a key point of discussion.
SpaceX’s approximately $8 billion frequency acquisition contract is noteworthy as a move by satellite communication companies into the terrestrial wireless communication market. Additionally, at Lumentum, demand for optical communication components for AI servers is strong, and expanding supply capacity is a challenge.
These news items are material indicating demand for AI and communication infrastructure, but when making investment decisions for individual stocks, it is necessary to check not only the stock price increase rate but also earnings, valuations, financing, and the competitive environment.
Japanese Stocks: Supply and Demand During Holidays and the 70,000 Yen Milestone
The Nikkei Stock Average on October 9 closed at 69,030.92 yen, down 11.19 yen from the previous day. The TOPIX was 4,104.81, up 13.35 points from the previous day, making it a day with many advancing stocks.
The Nikkei Average fell significantly at one point after the option SQ calculation, but narrowed its losses toward the afternoon session. Looking only at the index’s closing price, it was a slight decline, but the intraday price movement was large, indicating that short-term supply and demand are unstable.
After the Tokyo market reopens tomorrow, the weekend rise in US stocks may serve as a supporting factor. However, with US CPI and PPI data coming up this week, the market could fluctuate depending on changes in interest rate outlooks.
Beyond whether it recovers the 70,000 yen mark, I want to check the breadth of stocks supporting the rise, trading value, and the trends of overseas investors.
5. Cryptocurrencies and Commodities
Crude Oil: Viewing weekend settlement prices and early-week movements separately
The settlement prices on October 9 were $104.72 for Brent crude and $91.85 for WTI crude. The situation in the Middle East and supply disruptions caused by hurricanes in the US Gulf of Mexico were factors that pushed up prices over the weekend.
Since then, the crude oil market has fluctuated following statements regarding an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While expectations of a ceasefire may ease supply concerns, supply risks should not be considered resolved until an actual cessation of attacks is confirmed.
If high crude oil prices persist, they could spill over into the stock, bond, and currency markets through inflation expectations, long-term interest rates, and corporate costs.
Gold prices fluctuate due to multiple factors, including US Treasury yields, the dollar exchange rate, inflation expectations, central bank demand, and geopolitical risks. It is important not to explain price movements based solely on specific news, but to judge them in conjunction with interest rate and dollar movements.
When using a reference range of around $82,800–$83,100, the reference time is 16:00 Eastern Time (ET) on Friday, October 9, 2026. This is 5:00 AM on Saturday, October 10, Japan Standard Time.
6. Points for Consideration
1. Does the rebound in US stocks signify a recovery in confidence in AI investment?
The three major indices rose on a weekly basis, but the issues of investment burdens and monetization for AI-related companies remain. It is important to analyze the stock price rebound and corporate earnings power separately.
2. Attacks on Saudi airports and supply risks in the crude oil market
We will organize the impact of attacks on civilian aviation facilities on the energy market. Even if there are reports of a ceasefire, supply risks cannot be underestimated until an actual cessation of attacks and the safety of transport routes are confirmed.
3. The battle for the 70,000 yen Nikkei average and supply-demand after the long weekend
In the Japanese stock market at the end of last week, the Nikkei average fell slightly, while the TOPIX rose. We will verify the resilience of the market not only from the closing prices of the indices but also from the breadth of advancing stocks and futures movements.
4. The relationship between gold prices and US long-term interest rates
We will standardize gold prices to the COMEX gold futures settlement price and confirm the relationship with the dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields. We will analyze gold prices from the perspective of monetary policy and opportunity costs, not just geopolitical risks.
5. Dollar-yen in the 158 range and this week’s US CPI
We will consider multiple scenarios by combining the Japan-US interest rate differential, the vigilance of policy authorities regarding the weak yen, and US price indicators. It is important not to commit to one direction before the announcement, but to anticipate both cases where it exceeds and falls below expectations.
Summary
The market this week continues to see resilience in US stocks and expectations for AI infrastructure demand, while facing risks such as reignited inflation, high long-term interest rates, and a worsening situation in the Middle East.
Of particular note are the US CPI on October 14, the PPI on the 15th, and the earnings reports of major US financial institutions. Depending on how much the results deviate from market expectations, the reactions in the stock, bond, and currency markets may change.
Rather than deciding on a market direction, it is important to prepare multiple scenarios and consider how to respond if price movements differ from expectations.
More than pursuing profits in the market, the priority is not to be forced out of the market by unexpected price movements. I intend to continue making disciplined investment decisions while comprehensively checking not only prices but also interest rates, earnings, fund flows, and risk management.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not recommend investment in any specific financial product. Market prices may vary depending on the data provider, contract month, settlement price/final traded price, and reference time. For unverified figures, please cross-check with primary sources or reliable market data before publication. Please make actual investment decisions at your own risk and discretion.