Dhanteras-Diwali 2025: Gold, silver hit new highs — experts reveal if it’s time to invest
Gold has rallied sharply since last Dhanteras, with prices rising from around Rs 78,840 per 10 grams ($2,769/oz) on October 29, 2024, to nearly Rs 1.28 lakh ($4,254/oz) ahead of the 2025 festive season — a gain of about 63% in rupee terms and 53% in dollar terms. Over this period, gold has vastly outperformed the Nifty 50, which has remained largely flat. The rally has been fuelled by aggressive central bank buying, heightened geopolitical tensions, and global economic uncertainty, while expectations of further rate cuts have amplified investor interest in bullion.
On the MCX, gold traded 1.69% higher at Rs 131,052 per 10 grams on Friday after touching a record Rs 132,294. ETF inflows have reached their highest since 2020, while physical gold demand in coins and small ornaments remains resilient despite record prices. Investors are increasingly viewing gold as a hedge against macroeconomic instability and currency debasement.
According to Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research, central banks — especially those of China, India, and Turkey — have been on a gold-buying spree, not out of sentiment but to secure themselves against geopolitical and monetary risks. The freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022 triggered a renewed wave of de-dollarisation, prompting nations to diversify their reserves into gold. Kumar believes gold has evolved from a passive asset into a strategic store of value, though he cautions investors not to overexpose themselves: “Gold should not exceed 5–10% of one’s portfolio. It doesn’t produce income but helps de-risk against uncertainty.”
Kumar also warned against speculative excess: “The worst time to buy is when there’s complete consensus that an asset will only keep rising. Be cautious and don’t overload on gold just because prices are high.” He reaffirmed that equities and fixed income should remain the core of any portfolio, while gold can serve as a modest hedge.
Meanwhile, silver has emerged as the surprise outperformer this season. While gold enjoys traditional and monetary relevance, silver’s dual nature as a precious and industrial metal has propelled demand. Its widespread use in EVs, solar panels, semiconductors, and 5G infrastructure has turned it into a key material for the modern economy. Each electric vehicle consumes around 50 grams of silver, highlighting its growing industrial significance. With global production declining by nearly 20–22% and Indian output slipping sharply, the resulting supply deficit has intensified the price surge.
Kumar cautioned that a speculative frenzy appears to be forming in silver markets, with ETF prices trading 10–15% above import parity. He advised investors to understand the underlying fundamentals before investing: “Don’t buy just because prices are going up. Buy only if you understand why and believe the drivers will persist.”
Market analysts continue to expect a bullish tone for Dhanteras 2025. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, predicts that gold’s momentum will persist, citing price resistance at Rs 130,000–Rs 135,000 and support at Rs 121,000/$4,000. He foresees the next rally beginning from Dhanteras 2025, potentially propelling prices into uncharted territory — $5,000 per ounce or ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams by 2026.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said: “Gold extended its winning streak with strong gains of Rs 1,700 or 1.30%, reaching Rs 1,31,500, as the ongoing US government shutdown and a dollar index below 99 continued to support safe-haven flows into bullion. The sustained uncertainty in the US economy and delayed data releases have kept investors inclined toward gold as a defensive asset. With momentum staying firmly bullish, gold is likely to remain elevated as long as risk sentiment stays weak. Support is placed near Rs 1,28,000, while resistance is seen around Rs 1,33,000.”
Ultimately, experts agree that gold offers protection, silver offers potential, debt provides income, and equity drives prosperity — a balanced mix for investors this festive season.
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