Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Asian Session Gains on Trade Optimism

“The US and China are set to extend their trade truce by up to a year when Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing in early April, sources said. The agreement, first struck in Busan last October, rolled back tariffs and export controls, with China resuming US soybean purchases. Trump seeks tangible deliverables ahead of November’s midterms, while China stresses Taiwan as a “red line,” urging adherence to the one-China principle, according to Ambassador Xie Feng.”

The latest report follows US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s positive remarks about US-China relations, reinforcing expectations of an April agreement.

US Labor Market and the Fed in Focus

US futures advanced during the Asian session on February 12. The Dow Jones E-mini gained 93 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini climbed 9 points and 12 points, respectively.

Later on Thursday, US labor market data will fuel speculation about an H1 2026 Fed rate cut following the hotter-than-expected US jobs report. Economists expect initial jobless claims to drop from 231k (week ending January 31) to 222k (week ending February 7).

A lower jobless claims reading would cool bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut and weigh on demand for risk assets. For context, tighter labor market conditions may lift wages and consumer confidence, boosting private consumption. Typically, a pickup in consumer spending fuels demand-driven inflation, indicating a less dovish Fed policy stance.

January’s jump in nonfarm payrolls, lower unemployment, and steady wage growth dampened expectations of an H1 2026 rate cut, underscoring the significance of labor market data on sentiment.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a March Fed rate cut slid from 20.1% on February 10 to 5.4% on February 11. Meanwhile, the chances of a June cut fell from 75.2% to 57.6%.

Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches. Views on the labor market, inflation, and monetary policy will also influence risk appetite.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite Thursday morning’s gains, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini continued to trade below its 50-day EMA, while remaining above its 200-day EMA. The EMA positions indicated a bearish near-term, but bullish longer-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini held above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish bias that aligns with positive fundamentals.

Near-term trends will hinge on US economic data, central bank chatter, earnings, and geopolitical risks. Key levels to monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: the February 10 record high of 50,611 and then 51,000.
• Support: the 50-day EMA (48,987), and then 48,500.