Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Dip on China Margin Pressures, BoJ Jitters

While the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance remains a focal point, Chinese economic data also influenced demand for risk assets.

China Manufacturing Sector Sees Renewed Margin Pressures

The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2 in September, up from 50.5 in August. A pickup in new orders lifted production. However, rising input price inflation and falling average selling prices signaled renewed margin pressures, leading to further job cuts. Rising unemployment may further weaken consumer spending, challenging Beijing’s 5% GDP growth target.

Weakness in the Hang Seng underlined investor nerves. Combined with BoJ jitters, China’s renewed margin pressures dragged on US futures.

How Are US Stock Futures Reacting Ahead of Key Data?

US stock futures posted modest losses in morning trading on Tuesday, September 30. The Dow Jones E-mini fell 20 points, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini dropped 13 points, and the S&P 500 E-mini declined 3 points.

Will US JOLTs Job Openings Boost Fed Rate Cut Bets?

Attention now shifts to US labor data. A sharper drop in JOLTs openings could feed bets on an October cut, while a stronger print may stall the rally.

Economists forecast JOLTs job openings to drop from 7.181 million in July to 7.1 million in August.

A sharper drop in job openings would indicate weaker demand for labor, supporting a more dovish Fed rate path. A weakening labor market may soften wage growth and curb consumer spending, cooling inflation. Rising bets on October and December Fed rate cuts could lift sentiment. However, a higher reading could weigh on US stock futures ahead of Friday’s US Jobs Report.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite the morning losses, US stock futures trade above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a short-term bullish bias.

However, the near-term outlook hinges on tariff headlines, the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook, FOMC members’ commentary, and US labor market data. Key levels traders are monitoring include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: The September 23 record high of 47,055.
• Support: 46,500, 46,000, and then the 50-day EMA (45,451).