Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Fed Cut Bets Lift US Futures

A positive from the January figures was the less marked decline in producer prices, suggesting an improving demand backdrop. Producers adjust prices based on demand, passing cost savings or increases on to consumers. Improving demand would signal a pickup in global trade, supporting risk assets.

US Jobs Report and Earnings in Focus

US futures posted gains during the Asian session on February 11. The Dow Jones E-mini climbed 117 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini advanced 106 points and 21 points, respectively.

Later on Wednesday, US labor market data will influence expectations of an H1 2026 Fed rate cut. Economists forecast average hourly earnings will rise 3.6% year-on-year in January, down from 3.8% (YoY) in December. Meanwhile, economists expect unemployment to remain at 4.4% in January, while predicting the participation rate to drop from 62.4% to 62.3%. A lower participation rate can distort unemployment numbers.

Deteriorating labor market conditions and softer wage growth would indicate a drop in consumer spending, cooling demand-driven inflation. A weaker inflation outlook would support a more dovish Fed policy stance. Lower borrowing costs could boost corporate profits and stock valuations, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook for US stock futures.

With the US labor market in focus, traders should closely monitor Fed chatter. Views on inflation, the labor market, and monetary policy will influence risk sentiment.

Beyond the US economic data, the earnings calendar also needs consideration. McDonald’s (MCD) is among the marquee names to release earnings results. Given its retail focus, its outlook will give further clues on the demand environment. Upbeat earnings and positive outlooks would likely fuel demand for risk assets.

Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500

Despite the morning gains, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini remained below its 50-day EMA, while holding above its 200-day EMA. The EMA positions signaled a bearish near-term, but bullish longer-term outlook. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini traded above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias, aligning with positive fundamentals.

Near-term trends will hinge on geopolitical risks, earnings, US economic data, and central bank rhetoric. Key levels to monitor include:

Dow Jones

• Resistance: the February 10 record high of 50,611 and then 51,000.
• Support: the 50-day EMA (48,941), and then 48,500.